Talking Points
NZDJPY awaits monthly opening range break to validate bias
Key support 87.61/90
Updated scalp targets and invalidation levels
NZDJPY Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
NZDJPY sets clean May Opening Range 97.90 – 89.28
Break to validate monthly bias
Support objectives 87.61/90, 86.59/66 & 86.30
Key resistance range 89.30/50 – bearish invalidation
Daily RSI reversal at 60- bearish
Support & Resistance triggers pending
Limited event risk into the close of the week
NZDJPY Scalp Chart
Notes: The monthly opening range is set just below the 89.28/50 resistance range and our focus is lower on the NZDJPY while below this threshold. Although the initial weekly opening range came in at 88.13, we’ve amended the level to include a Fibonacci confluence zone just lower at 87.93 – 88.01. We will reserve this level as our near-term bullish invalidation with a break below warranting short exposure into subsequent support targets.
Bottom line: looking to sell rallies with RSI conviction while below 89.28 with only a breach above 89.50 invalidating our near-term bias. A daily close sub 87.61 would validate the monthly range break with such a scenario eyeing subsequent targets into key support at 86.60. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets
Timeframe
Level
Significance
Resistance Target 1
30min
88.41
38.2% Retracement
Bearish Invalidation
30min
88.59/60
50% Retracement / Weekly ORH
Break Target 1
30min
88.89
61.8% Retracement
Break Target 3
Daily / 30min
89.27/50
May ORH / 76.4% Retrace / 2014 Close High
Break Target 4
Daily / 30min
89.90 – 90.01
138.2% Extension / 2014 High
Break Target 5
Daily
91.04
1.618% Fib Extension
Bullish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
87.93 – 88.01
23.6%, 61.8% Retrace(s) / 50% Ext / May ORL
Break Target 1
Daily / 30min
87.61/66
61.8% Extension / 78.6% Retrace
Break Target 2
30min
87.16/22
61.8% Retracement / April Low
Break Target 3
Daily / 30min
86.59/67
100% Ext / 38.2% Retracements
Break Target 4
Daily
86.30
78.6% Retracement
Average True Range
Daily (20)
70
Profit Targets 16-18pips
*ORH: Opening Range High
*ORL: Opening Range Low
Other Setups in Play:
EURAUD Scalp Setup Favors Selling Rallies Sub-1.5030
EURJPY Scalps Target Critical Support at 141
Scalping the GBPNZD Breakout- Longs Favored Above 1.96
Key Risks to EUR, NZD, GBPAUD Scalp Setups
EURUSD Scalp Setup Favors Buying Dips While Above 1.3830
—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars next week Monday on DailyFX and Tuesday – Thursday on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 12:30 GMT (8:30ET)
Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video
Source: Daily fx
