Talking Points:
Kiwi Dollar Outperforms Against Aussie as China Scraps One-Child Policy
US Price Growth Data Boosts Fed Rate Hike Outlook, Boosting US Dollar
See Economic Releases Right on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App
The Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed in overnight trade. The two sentiment-linked currencies advanced alongside S&P 500 futures, hinting the move reflected firming risk appetite. The Kiwi pulled ahead of its Aussie counterpart asChina announced a decision to scrap its one-child policy. The move may fuel greater milk powder demand, amounting to a windfall for New Zealand dairy exporters.
Risk appetite was surprisingly durable despite a Bank of Japandecision to withhold additional stimulus. Options markets were heavily skewed in favor of Yen weakness ahead of today’s policy announcement, with the premium paid for the right to sell the currency compared with the right to buy rising to a five-year high. That suggested investors were betting on a dovish result. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and company saw things otherwise, voting 8-1in favor of the status quo.
Looking ahead, stock index futures hint the risk-on mood may continue. US news-flow is in focus on the data front, with September’s PCE inflation and third-quarter Employment Cost Index figures on the docket. Improvements are expected on both fronts, which may amplify the probability of a December Fed rate hike in the minds of investors and push the US Dollar higher.
New to FX? START HERE!
Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
21:45
NZD
Building Permits (MoM) (SEP)
-5.7%
–
-5.3%
23:30
JPY
Jobless Rate (SEP)
3.4%
3.4%
3.4%
23:30
JPY
Job-To-Applicant Ratio (SEP)
1.24
1.24
1.23
23:30
JPY
Overall Household Spending (YoY) (SEP)
-0.4%
1.1%
2.9%
23:30
JPY
Natl CPI (YoY) (SEP)
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
23:30
JPY
Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food (YoY) (SEP)
-0.1%
-0.2%
-0.1%
23:30
JPY
Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (SEP)
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
23:30
JPY
Tokyo CPI (YoY) (OCT)
0.1%
0.0%
-0.1%
23:30
JPY
Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (OCT)
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
23:30
JPY
Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (OCT)
0.4%
0.5%
0.6%
00:00
NZD
ANZ Activity Outlook (OCT)
23.7
–
16.7
00:00
NZD
ANZ Business Confidence (OCT)
10.5
–
-18.9
00:05
GBP
GfK Consumer Confidence (OCT)
2
4
3
00:24
AUD
CBA/HIA House Affordability (3Q)
78.3
–
81.6
00:30
AUD
Private Sector Credit (MoM) (SEP)
0.8%
0.5%
0.6%
00:30
AUD
Private Sector Credit (YoY) (SEP)
6.7%
6.3%
6.4%
00:30
AUD
PPI QoQ (3Q)
0.9%
–
0.3%
00:30
AUD
PPI (YoY) (3Q)
1.7%
–
1.1%
02:00
NZD
M3 Money Supply (YoY) (SEP)
8.5%
–
9.0%
03:22
JPY
BOJ Annual Rise in Monetary Base
¥80T
¥80T
¥80T
04:00
JPY
Vehicle Production (YoY) (SEP)
-2.6%
–
-4.7%
05:00
JPY
Housing Starts (YoY) (SEP)
2.6%
5.8%
8.8%
05:00
JPY
Annualized Housing Starts (SEP)
0.900M
0.936M
0.931M
05:00
JPY
Construction Orders (YoY) (SEP)
6.7%
–
-15.6%
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP
PREV
IMPACT
07:00
EUR
German Retail Sales (MoM) (SEP)
0.4%
-0.6%
Medium
07:00
EUR
German Retail Sales (YoY) (SEP)
4.1%
2.5%
Medium
08:00
CHF
KOF Leading Indicator (OCT)
100.1
100.4
Low
09:00
EUR
Italian Unemployment Rate (SEP P)
11.9%
11.9%
Low
09:30
GBP
Lloyds Business Barometer (OCT)
–
42
Low
10:00
EUR
Eurozone Unemployment Rate (SEP)
11.0%
11.0%
Low
10:00
EUR
Eurozone CPI Estimate (YoY) (OCT)
0.0%
-0.1%
Medium
10:00
EUR
Eurozone CPI Core (YoY) (OCT A)
0.9%
0.9%
Medium
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EURUSD
1.0789
1.0872
1.0925
1.0955
1.1008
1.1038
1.1221
GBPUSD
1.5134
1.5213
1.5261
1.5292
1.5340
1.5371
1.5450
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To receive Ilya’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE
Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.
Source: Daily fx
