Talking Points:
– GBP/USD Struggles to Retain Bullish RSI Momentum Ahead of BoE Meeting.
– EUR/USD Retail Crowd Turns Net-Long Ahead of March Despite Bearish Break.
– USDOLLAR Holds Monthly Opening Range Ahead of Preliminary 4Q GDP Report.
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GBP/USD
Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Lack of momentum to break/close above former support zone around 1.5510-1.5550 may highlight a near-term top especially as the RSI struggles to retain the bullish momentum from earlier this year.
Despite expectations of seeing the Bank of England (BoE) retain its current policy at the March 5 meeting, may see a bullish reaction in sterling as Governor Mark Carney continues to prepare U.K. household and businesses for higher borrowing-costs.
A break back below 1.5300 (23.6% retracement) to 1.5320 (78.6% retracement) to negate bullish GBP/USD and raises the risk for a resumption of the bearish trend.
EUR/USD
DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd has now turned net-long EUR/USD following the slew of U.S. data from earlier this morning; seeing higher opening interest going into the end of the month.
The break of the wedge/triangle favors the approach to ‘sell-bounces’ in EUR/USD as the RSI retains the bearish momentum; may see the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision on March 5 act as a fundamental catalyst for a further decline in EUR/USD should President Mario Draghi show a greater willingness to further embark on the easing cycle.
Close below 1.1185 (23.6% expansion) to 1.1210 (61.8% retracement) raises the risk for fresh yearly lows in EUR/USD.
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Read More:
Price & Time: USD/CAD On Shaky Ground?
Scalping AUD/USD Opening Range Break- 7850 Support
USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
Index
Last
High
Low
Daily Change (%)
Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index
11818.05
11823.54
11737.29
0.58
145.57%
Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar looks poised to retain the bullish trend going into March as it holds the monthly opening range, while the RSI threatens the bearish momentum.
Despite the sticky CPI prints, a marked downward revision in the 4Q U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may keep the greenback largely range-bound going into the end of the month.
Failure to test 11,721 (38.2%) keeps the bullish setup intact, but need a close below 11,826 (61.8% expansion) to expose the next level of interest around 11,901 (78.6% expansion).
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Release
GMT
Expected
Actual
Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JAN)
13:30
-0.6%
-0.7%
Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)
13:30
-0.1%
-0.1%
Consumer Price Index ex Food/Energy (MoM) (JAN)
13:30
0.1%
0.2%
Consumer Price Index ex Food/Energy (YoY) (JAN)
13:30
1.6%
1.6%
Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (JAN)
13:30
233.680
233.707
Consumer Price Index Core s.a. (JAN)
13:30
239.670
239.871
Durable Goods Orders (JAN)
13:30
1.6%
2.8%
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation (JAN)
13:30
0.5%
0.3%
Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircrafts (JAN)
13:30
0.3%
0.6%
Non-Defense Capital Goods Shipments ex Aircrafts (JAN)
13:30
0.2%
-0.3%
Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 21)
13:30
290K
313K
Continuing Claims (FEB 14)
13:30
2395K
2401K
FHFA House Price Index (MoM) (DEC)
14:00
0.5%
0.8%
House Price Purchase Index (QoQ) (4Q)
14:00
—
1.40%
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity (FEB)
16:00
3
1
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— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
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Source: Daily fx