Talking Points
GBPNZD heading into near-term support
Weekly opening range in focus- Key near-term support 1.9650
Broader outlook bullish above 1.9460
Event risk on tap from UK & New Zealand this week
GBPNZD Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
GBPNZD testing near-term support
Weekly opening range in focus- Break to offer conviction on scalp bias
Interim support 1.9764, 1.9710, 1.9650/61– bullish invalidation
Resistance breach above 1.9881/93 shifts scalp focus higher
Topside objectives 1.9986/92, 2.0052/71, 2.0331/43
Momentum testing support trigger / intra-week RSI in consolidation
Event Risk on Tap: UK Quarterly Inflation Report and New Zealand Business Manufacturing PMI & Food Prices on Wednesday
GBPNZD Scalp Chart
Notes: Last month our focus was on the 9753 support level and our scalp bias was weighted to the topside above this mark. The pair eventually rallied into a fresh multi-year high before turning around in early February to close last week just above this same level. We are neutral here to start off the week as we await a break of the weekly opening range to offer conviction on our scalp bias. Key near-term resistance stands just above the weekly opening range high at 1.9880/93 and a breach/close above this mark with RSI conviction warrants long exposure.
On a broader outlook, a new monthly low to check key support at 9650/60 should not be ruled out and may offer more favorable long entries. A break below this threshold puts us neutral again with a move sub-9460 suggesting that a more significant correction is underway.
Bottom line: our immediate focus is on a conviction break of the weekly opening range with our broader bias weighed to the topside while above 9460. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week in DailyFX on Demand.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets
Timeframe
Level
Significance
Bearish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
1.9881/93
23.6% Retrace / 100% Fib Ext / 50DMA (1.99)
Break Target 1
30min
1.9930
Soft Resistance / Pivot
Break Target 2
Daily / 30min
1.9986/93
38.2% Retracement / 1.618 Fib Ext
Break Target 3
Daily / 30min
2.0052/71
50% Ext / 50% Retracement
Break Target 4
Daily / 30min
2.0131/56
Soft Pivot / 61.8% Retrace / 2.618 Ext
Break Target 5
30min
2.0213
Soft Resistance / Pivot
Break Target 6
30min
2.0277
78.6% Retracement
Break Target 7
Daily / 30min
2.0331/43
61.8% Extension(s)
Support Target 1
30min
1.9764/72
Weekly ORL / 38.2% Extension
Support Target 2
30min
1.9710
Monthly ORL
Bullish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
1.9650/61
50% & 78.6% Retracement(s)
Break Target 1
30min
1.9560
Soft Support / Pivot
Break Target 2
Daily / 30min
1.9461/65
100% Ext / 61.8 Retrace / January Low / 200DMA
Break Target 3
Daily / 30min
1.9390
38.2% Retracement
Average True Range
Daily (20)
220
Profit Targets 51-54pips
*ORH: Opening Range High
*ORL: Opening Range Low
Other Setups in Play:
AUDCAD Eyes Key Resistance- Bullish Scalp Bias at Risk Sub 9953
Trading the EURAUD Reversal- Scalp Bias Bearish Below 1.533
EURNZD Scalps Eye Key Inflection Point- Bias at Risk Sub 1.6720
USDCHF Defends January Range Low- Scalp Bias Bullish Above 90
FOMC Setups – EUR, CAD, Gold Eye Key Dollar Inflection Points
—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinars next week Tuesday- Thursday mornings on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 1130 GMT (11:30ET)
Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video
Source: Daily fx
