Talking Points
GBPCAD preserves weekly opening range below trendline resistance
Broader outlook constructive above 1.8228
Event risk on from Canada tomorrow
GBPCAD Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
GBPCAD holding well defined range just below Fibonacci / TL resistance ~1.8467/82
Resistance-break targets objectives at 1.8536/46, 1.8603 & 1.8701/30
Support at 1.8383, channel support & 1.8228- bullish invalidation
Daily RSI momentum trigger break last week- bullish
Event Risk Ahead: Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) & Retail Sales tomorrow
GBPCAD 30min Chart
Notes: The topside bias seems at risk here below trendline resistance dating back to the March high. The weekly opening range remains intact just below this level and the focus remains on a break of this region to validate a near-term directional bias. A topside breach targets the upper-bounds of the consolidation pattern the pair has held since the February low.
Bottom line: the broader bias remains constructive but a near-term break sub-1.84 could fuel a correction into channel support. Note that Canadian inflation and retail sales data tomorrow morning could offer a catalyst for a break of this range. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets
Timeframe
Level
Technical Relevance
Bearish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
1.8467/82
Weekly ORH / 78.6% Ext / 78.6% Retrace
Break Target 1
30min
1.8505
Soft Resistance / Pivot
Break Target 2
Daily / 30min
1.8531/46
100% Ext / 78.6% & 88.6% Ext(s)
Break Target 3
30min
1.8586
May High
Break Target 4
Daily / 30min
1.8604
88.6% Retracement
Break Target 5
Daily / 30min
1.8668
2014 High
Bullish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
1.8384 – 1.84
Weekly ORL / 50% & 61.8% Retracement(s)
Break Target 1
Daily / 30min
1.8336/42
50% Retracement / 38.2% Extension
Break Target 2
30min
1.8317
38.2% Retrace / ~Channel Support
Break Target 3
30min
1.8295
23.6% Extension / Channel
Break Target 4
Daily / 30min
1.8228/35
61.8% & 23.6% Retracement(s)
Average True Range
Daily (20)
90
Profit Targets 22-24pips
*ORH: Opening Range High
*ORL: Opening Range Low
Other Setups in Play Heading into NFPs:
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EURAUD at Fresh 2014 Lows- Reversal Risk High Above 1.4420/40
Breakout or Break Down? NZD/USD Eyes Critical Resistance Pre-NFPs
USDCAD Risks Reversal Ahead of NFPs- 1.0950 Key Resistance
EURUSD Targets 2014 Lows Ahead of ECB/NFP- Opening Ranges in Focus
—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
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Source: Daily fx