Talking Points:
– GBP/USD Vulnerable to Further Losses as BoE Testifies on Inflation Report
– NZD/USD Needs More Hawkish RBNZ More Meaningful Recovery
– USDOLLAR Risks Larger Correction as RSI Divergence Takes Shape
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GBP/USD
GBP/USD holding near-term support around 1.6280-1.6300, but remains at risk for a further decline as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds & pushes deeper into oversold territory.
With Bank of England (BoE) scheduled to testify on August Inflation report will watch for more detailed surrounding the interest rate outlook; will BoE Minutes, which are due out on September 17, show greater dissent?
The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-long GBP/USD, with the ratio currently standing at +2.02.
NZD/USD
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) widely expected to hold rates at 2.50% at the September 10 meeting; Governor Graeme Wheeler to hold press conference at 21:05 GMT.
May see NZD/USD retain bearish trend/momentum on more neutral tone; will Wheeler continue to jawbone the New Zealand dollar?.
Next downside region of interest comes in around 0.8210 (78.6% retracement) to 0.8240 (78.6% expansion).
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Read More:
US Dollar Profit Taking Ensues on Surprise August NFPs Miss
NZD/USD Keeps Traders In Suspense Amid Void Of Reversal Candlesticks
USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
Index
Last
High
Low
Daily Change (%)
Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index
10736.43
10768.29
10716.67
-0.09
152.53%
Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index fails to hold the fresh yearly high (10,768) as Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) disappoints; string of failed closes above 10,753 (23.6% expansion) to 10,759 (61.8% retracement) may highlight greater risk for larger correction.
Bearish divergence continues to take shape on the RSI; still need to see a break of trendline support to favor downside targets.
10,657 (61.8% expansion) to 10,661 (23.6% retracement) will be first region to watch once a larger correction takes shape.
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Release
GMT
Expected
Actual
Change in Non-farm Payrolls (AUG)
12:30
230K
142K
Unemployment Rate (AUG)
12:30
6.1%
6.1%
Labor Force Participation Rate (AUG)
12:30
—
62.8%
Change in Private Payrolls (AUG)
12:30
214K
134K
Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (AUG)
12:30
18K
0K
Change in Household Employment (AUG)
12:30
238
16
Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (AUG)
12:30
—
-28K
Underemployment Rate (AUG)
12:30
—
12.0%
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (AUG)
12:30
0.2%
0.2%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (AUG)
12:30
2.1%
2.1%
Average Weekly Hours (AUG)
12:30
34.5
34.5%
Fed’s Eric Rosengren Speaks on U.S. Economy
19:45
Fed’s Charles Plosser Speaks on U.S. Economy
14:15
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— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
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Source: Daily fx