Barclays Capital FX Strategy Research continues to expect medium-trend GBP appreciation, but notes that the expectations for UK data releases this week skew the risks for GBP to the downside after a multi-week surge.
In that regard, Barclays expects the UK’s April headline CPI (Tue) to print 2.5%y/y, 0.2pp below the BoE’s forecasts (consensus: 2.6%; previous:2.3%), while expects core inflation to increase 2.2% y/y, in line with the consensus (previous: 1.8%).
Barclays also expect retail sales (Thurs) to rise a modest 0.8% m/m (consensus: 1.1% m/m; previous: 0.8% m/m).
GBP/USD is trading circa 1.2890 as of writing.
Source: Barclays ResearchOriginal Article
