Talking Points:
– GBP/USD Holds Near-Term Support Despite Unanimous BoE Vote
– NZD/USD Outlook Hinges on Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Outlook
– USDOLLAR Topping Process Remains in Focus; 10,470 in View

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

10440.22

10452.06

10427.51

-0.08

93.50%

GBP/USD:
Slips to a fresh weekly low of 1.7022 as Bank of England (BoE) Minutes shows a 9-0 vote to retain current policy.
Sitting at key Fibonacci confluence around 1.7020-30; lower-high in place?
Markets turning attention to the BoE Inflation report due out on August 13 as there appears to be a growing rift within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) continues to show net-short positioning in GBP/USD as the ratio stands at -2.6125.

NZD/USD:
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to deliver another 25bp rate hike, but forward-guidance for monetary policy will be key focus.
Need greater willingness from RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler for another rate hike later this year.
According to Credit Suisse Overnight Index Swaps (OIS), 12-month expectations show the cash rate increasing by 70bp.

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Read More:
Price & Time: Unbreakable
BoE Sings Dovish Tune – How Threatened are GBP Longs?

USDOLLAR Daily

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index remains at risk of a near-term topping process as it retains the descending channel from earlier this year.
Will need to see another close above 10,440 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to look for a more meaningful run at the 10,470 pivot.
A bearish break in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may suggest that a lower-high is in place.
Interim Resistance: 10,508 (61.8% retracement) to 10,524 (38.2% retracement)
Interim Support: 10,354 (Oct. low) to 10,375 (50.0& retracement)

Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

MBA Mortgage Applications (JUL 18)

11:00

—

2.4%

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUL 18)

14:30

-2900K

-3969K

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (JUL 18)

14:30

2000K

1636K

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (JUL 18)

14:30

1000K

3379K

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— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

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Source: Daily fx