Talking Points:
BOE Meeting Minutes, UK Jobless Claims in Focus in European Hours
Pound Follow-Through Likely Limited on Priced-In Policy Expectations
US Dollar May Rise as Fed Minutes Stress Commitment to Tapering QE
The publication of minutes from February’s Bank of England monetary policy meeting headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The document will help to further illuminate MPC officials’ discussion about the evolution of the Bank’s strategy that led to its augmented forward-guidance framework unveiled in last week’s Quarterly Inflation Report.
From a practical perspective, that document has already reveled the new strategy being adopted by Mark Carney and company, limiting the Minutes’ market-moving potential. With that in mind, follow-through on any near-term volatility borne of subtle nuances in officials’ rhetoric may prove limited. January’s UK Jobless Claims data is likewise on tap, with a 20,000 decline expected.
Looking ahead, the day’s pivotal bit of event risk comes in the form of minutes from January’s FOMC meeting. As we discussed in detail earlier in the week, the report may mark the beginning of a reversal for the US Dollar. The greenback has faced heavy selling pressure in recent weeks amid what appeared to be an unwinding of EM-driven risk aversion. The currency may find renewed vigor if a relatively hawkish tone from Fed officials reaffirms their commitment to the QE “tapering” process in spite of recently disappointing US economic news-flow.
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Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
23:00
AUD
Conference Board Leading Index (DEC)
0.8%
–
0.2%
23:30
AUD
Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (JAN)
-0.2%
–
0.1%
0:00
AUD
Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (JAN)
1.4%
–
1.7%
0:30
AUD
Wage Cost Index (QoQ) (4Q)
0.7%
0.6%
0.5%
0:30
AUD
Wage Cost Index (YoY) (4Q)
2.6%
2.5%
2.7%
1:45
CNY
MNI Business Indicator (FEB)
50.2
–
52.2
4:30
JPY
All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (DEC)
-0.1%
0.1%
0.4%
5:00
JPY
Leading Index (DEC F)
111.7
–
112.1
5:00
JPY
Coincident Index (DEC F)
111.7
–
111.7
5:00
JPY
Bank of Japan Monthly Report (FEB)
–
–
–
5:30
JPY
Nationwide Dept Store Sales (YoY) (JAN)
2.9%
–
1.7%
5:30
JPY
Tokyo Dept Store Sales (YoY) (JAN)
5.4%
–
3.6%
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP
PREV
IMPACT
9:30
GBP
Bank of England Feb Meeting Minutes
–
–
High
9:30
GBP
Claimant Count Rate (JAN)
3.6%
3.7%
Medium
9:30
GBP
Jobless Claims Change (JAN)
-20.0K
-24.0K
High
9:30
GBP
Average Weekly Earnings (3M/Y) (DEC)
1.0%
0.9%
Low
9:30
GBP
Weekly Earnings ex Bonus (3M/Y) (DEC)
0.9%
0.9%
Low
9:30
GBP
ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (DEC)
7.1%
7.1%
Medium
9:30
GBP
Employment Change (3M/3M) (DEC)
250K
280K
Low
10:00
EUR
Eurozone Construction Output (MoM) (DEC)
–
-0.6%
Low
10:00
EUR
Eurozone Construction Output (YoY) (DEC)
–
-1.7%
Low
10:00
CHF
ZEW Survey (Expectations) (FEB)
–
36.4
Medium
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EUR/USD
1.3591
1.3666
1.3712
1.3741
1.3787
1.3816
1.3891
GBP/USD
1.6520
1.6607
1.6645
1.6694
1.6732
1.6781
1.6868
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Source: Daily fx