Talking Points:
British Pound May Correct Lower After a Status-Quo BOE Rate Decision
Aussie Dollar Jumps on Jobs But Chinese Export Slump Tempers Advance
Japanese Yen Outperforms on Haven Demand as Nikkei 225 Trades Lower
A monetary policy announcement from the Bank of England headlines the economic calendar in European hours. On the whole, UK data outcomes have been broadly stable relative to consensus forecasts since the March sit-down. Meanwhile, leading PMI data suggests manufacturing- and service-sector growth accelerated at the slowest pace since June 2013. Furthermore, the latest set of CPI figures put the headline year-on-year inflation rate at just 1.7 percent, the lowest since October 2009.
Taken together, this suggests Governor Mark Carney and company are unlikely to back away from the central bank’s accommodative policy setting, leaving things unchanged for the time being. While a status quo outcome is generally expected, the absence of hawkish cues in the context of three consecutive days of British Pound gains may prompt a degree of profit-taking, sending the UK unit lower in the near term.
The Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade as the Nikkei 225 stock index traded lower, boosting demand for the regional safe-haven currency. The Australian Dollar likewise advanced after the March Employment data showed the economy added 18.1k jobs, topping forecasts calling for a meager 2.5k increase. The Aussie’s gains were tempered by a disappointing set of Chinese Trade Balance figures however. The report revealed an unexpected 6.6 percent year-on-year drop in exports, an outcome that fell far short of the 4.8 percent increase penciled in by economists ahead of the release.
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Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
22:30
NZD
Business NZ PMI (MAR)
58.4
–
56.5
23:01
GBP
RICS House Price Balance (MAR)
57%
43%
47%
23:50
JPY
Machine Orders (MoM)
-8.8%
-2.6%
13.4%
23:50
JPY
Machine Orders (YoY)
10.8%
17.5%
23.6%
23:50
JPY
Bank Lending incl. Trusts (YoY)
2.1%
–
2.2%
23:50
JPY
Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust
2.3%
–
2.4%
1:00
AUD
Consumer Inflation Expectation (APR)
2.4%
–
2.1%
1:30
AUD
Unemployment Rate (MAR)
5.8%
6.1%
6.1%
1:30
AUD
Employment Change (MAR)
18.1K
2.5K
48.2K
1:30
AUD
Participation Rate (MAR)
64.7%
64.8%
64.9%
1:30
AUD
Full Time Employment Change (MAR)
-22.1K
–
80.0K
1:30
AUD
Part Time Employment Change (MAR)
40.2K
–
-31.8K
2:00
JPY
Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (%)(MAR)
6.70
–
7.01
2:07
CNY
Trade Balance (MAR)
$7.71B
$1.80B
-$22.99B
2:07
CNY
Exports (YoY) (MAR)
-6.6%
4.8%
-18.1%
2:07
CNY
Imports (YoY) (MAR)
-11.3%
3.9%
10.1%
6:00
JPY
Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (MAR P)
–
26.1%
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP
PREV
IMPACT
6:45
EUR
French Manufacturing Production (MoM) (FEB)
0.3%
0.7%
Low
6:45
EUR
French Manufacturing Production (YoY) (FEB)
1.0%
1.4%
Low
6:45
EUR
French Industrial Production (MoM) (FEB)
0.2%
-0.2%
Low
6:45
EUR
French Industrial Production (YoY) (FEB)
-0.3%
-0.1%
Low
6:45
EUR
French CPI (MoM) (MAR)
0.6%
0.6%
Low
6:45
EUR
French CPI (YoY) (MAR)
0.8%
1.1%
Low
6:45
EUR
French CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) (MAR)
0.5%
0.6%
Low
6:45
EUR
French CPI – EU Harmonised (YoY) (MAR)
0.8%
1.1%
Low
8:00
EUR
Italian Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)
-0.3%
1.0%
Low
8:00
EUR
Italian Industrial Production n.s.a. (YoY)
-1.7%
Low
8:00
EUR
Italian Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)
1.1%
1.4%
Low
8:00
EUR
ECB Publishes Monthly Report
–
–
Medium
11:00
GBP
Bank of England Rate Decision (APR 10)
0.50%
0.50%
High
11:00
GBP
BOE Asset Purchase Target
375B
375B
High
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EUR/USD
1.3668
1.3750
1.3803
1.3832
1.3885
1.3914
1.3996
GBP/USD
1.6621
1.6697
1.6745
1.6773
1.6821
1.6849
1.6925
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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