Talking Points
Euro May Decline if Soft Flash CPI Print Boosts ECB Stimulus Expectations
Dollar Looks to Read US News-Flow in Terms of Fed QE “Taper” Outlook
Aussie, NZ Dollars Rise as S&P 500 Futures Point to Risk Appetite Recovery
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Augusts’ preliminary Eurozone CPI figure headlines the calendar in European hours. Expectations call for the year-on-year inflation rate to slow to 1.4 percent, the lowest in three months. The Euro continues to track relative monetary policy expectations (as implied by the EU-US 2 year bond yield spread). With that in mind, a soft print may be seen as amplifying the case for additional ECB stimulus and weigh on the single currency.
Later in the day, the spotlight shifts to the US data docket. July’s Personal Income and Spending metrics as well as Augusts’ Chicago PMI and revised University of Michigan Consumer Confidence releases are on tap.The resultsare likely to be interpreted in terms of its implications for the Fed’s move to “taper” QE asset purchases.With that in mind, a strong showing stands to boost the US Dollar while disappointing results will probably produce the opposite result.
The sentiment-geared Australian and New Zealand Dollars narrowly outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade as S&P 500 futures advanced, pointing to firming risk appetite. The Japanese Yen likewise rose as the Nikkei 225 benchmark stock index declined, dragged downward by energy and basic materials sectors. The news-wires chalked up the move to receding fears of an imminent Western intervention in the Syria.
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Asia Session:
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
23:05
GBP
GfK Consumer Confidence Survey
-13
-14
-16
23:15
JPY
Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI (AUG)
52.2
–
50.7
23:30
JPY
Household Spending (YoY) (JUL)
0.1%
0.3%
-0.4%
23:30
JPY
Jobless Rate (JUL)
3.8%
3.9%
3.9%
23:30
JPY
Job-To-Applicant Ratio
0.94
0.93
0.92
23:30
JPY
National CPI (YoY) (JUL)
0.7%
0.7%
0.2%
23:30
JPY
National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUL)
0.7%
0.6%
0.4%
23:30
JPY
National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUL)
-0.1%
-0.2%
-0.2%
23:30
JPY
Tokyo CPI (YoY) (JUL)
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
23:30
JPY
Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUL)
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
23:30
JPY
Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUL)
-0.4%
-0.3%
-0.4%
23:50
JPY
Industrial Production (YoY)
1.6%
1.8%
-4.6%
23:50
JPY
Industrial Production (MoM)
3.2%
3.6%
-3.1%
1:30
AUD
Private Sector Credit (YoY)
3.2%
3.1%
3.1%
1:30
AUD
Private Sector Credit (MoM)
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
1:45
CNY
MNI August Business Sentiment Indicator
58.0
–
53.4
3:00
NZD
Money Supply M3 (YoY)
4.9%
–
6.2%
4:00
JPY
Vehicle Production (YoY)
-1.5%
–
-10.0%
5:00
JPY
Annualized Housing Starts
0.975M
0.994M
0.976M
5:00
JPY
Housing Starts (YoY)
12.0%
14.3%
15.3%
5:00
JPY
Construction Orders (YoY)
13.7%
–
21.9%
Euro Session:
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP/ACT
PREV
IMPACT
6:00
GBP
Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (AUG)
0.6% (A)
0.9%
Medium
6:00
GBP
Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG)
3.5% (A)
3.9%
Medium
6:00
EUR
German Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL)
2.3% (A)
-2.4%
Medium
6:00
EUR
German Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL)
-1.4% (A)
-0.8%
Medium
7:00
CHF
KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (AUG)
1.36 (A)
1.25
Medium
8:30
GBP
Net Consumer Credit (JUL)
0.6B
0.5B
Low
8:30
GBP
Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (JUL)
1.1B
1.0B
Low
8:30
GBP
Mortgage Approvals (JUL)
58.8K
57.7K
Medium
8:30
GBP
M4 Money Supply (YoY) (JUL)
–
1.5%
Low
8:30
GBP
M4 Money Supply (MoM) (JUL)
–
0.1%
Low
8:30
GBP
M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (JUL)
4.5%
4.7%
Low
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (AUG)
-0.36
-0.53
Low
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Services Confidence (AUG)
-6.8
-7.8
Low
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (AUG)
-9.6
-10.6
Low
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (AUG F)
–
-15.6
Medium
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (AUG)
93.8
92.5
Low
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (JUL)
12.1%
12.1%
Medium
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) (AUG)
1.4%
1.6%
High
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone CPI – Core (YoY) (AUG A)
1.1%
1.1%
Medium
Critical Levels:
CCY
SUPP 3
SUPP 2
SUPP 1
Pivot Point
RES 1
RES 2
RES 3
EURUSD
1.3022
1.3145
1.3193
1.3268
1.3316
1.3391
1.3514
GBPUSD
1.5382
1.5447
1.5475
1.5512
1.5540
1.5577
1.5642
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya, email ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.
Source: Daily fx
