Talking Points:
Pound to Rise on Status-Quo BOE Result but Follow-Through Likely Limited
Euro Vulnerable as the ECB Faces Mounting Pressure to Boost Easing Efforts
Australian Dollar Outperformed on Supportive Trade Data in Asian Trade
Monetary policy announcements from the Bank of England (BOE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) headline the economic calendar in hours ahead. The UK monetary authority is expected to keep the benchmark lending rate unchanged at 0.50 percent and maintain the size of its asset purchase program at £375 billion, with the focus on possible changes in the forward guidance framework introduced last year. The rate-setting MPC committee has pledged not to consider rate hikes until the unemployment rate drops below 7 percent.
The slide toward this threshold has materialized much faster than policymakers projected. While crossing it won’t necessarily trigger an immediate increase in baseline borrowing costs (as the BOE has repeatedly stated), it will bring the possibility of tightening into the realm of speculation and mark a hawkish shift from the policy status quo. With this in mind, opting to keep guidance as-is could be interpreted as borderline supportive for the British Pound, though near-term follow-through may be limited until traders are able to review the basis for the decision in the Quarterly Inflation Report due to be published next week.
Meanwhile, the ECB is under pressure to deliver additional easing as disappointing CPI data and sinking inflation expectations feed deflation fears and challenge the central bank’s mandate to maintain price stability. The headline year-on-year inflation rate registered at 0.7 percent in January, matching a four-year low registered in October 2013. That print prompted an interest rate cut, but this proved ineffective and so seems unlikely to be repeated this time around.
This opens the door for Mario Draghi to try their hand at non-conventional policy options. Negative deposit rates, another round of LTROs (augmented to ensure policy transmission into the real economy) or a direct-lending program similar to the BOE’s FLS scheme have been tipped as possible alternatives. The outright introduction of additional stimulus at today’s announcement or hints of its near-term emergence at the ECB President’s press conference following the sit-down are likely to weigh on the Euro and we remain short EURUSD.
The Australian Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.8 percent against its US namesake. The rally followed an impressive Trade Balance report that unexpectedly produced an A$468 million surplus in December, the best reading in two years. The outcome helped ward off the possibility of further interest rate cuts, building on rhetoric advanced at this week’s RBA monetary policy meeting. A Credit Suisse gauge tracking investors’ priced-in 12-month monetary policy outlook rose to a two-month high after the trade figures crossed the wires.
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Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
0:30
AUD
Trade Balance (A$) (DEC)
468M
-200M
83M
0:30
AUD
Retail Sales s.a. (M/M) (DEC)
0.5%
0.5%
0.7%
0:30
AUD
Retail Sales ex Inflation (Q/Q) (4Q)
0.9%
1.2%
0.8%
0:30
AUD
NAB Business Confidence (4Q)
8
–
5
2:00
JPY
Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (JAN)
7.18%
–
7.34%
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP/ACT
PREV
IMPACT
6:45
CHF
SECO Consumer Confidence (JAN)
2 (A)
-5
Low
7:00
CHF
Trade Balance (CHF) (DEC)
0.50B (A)
2.03B
Medium
7:00
CHF
Exports (M/M) (DEC)
0.9% (A)
3.00%
Low
7:00
CHF
Imports (M/M) (DEC)
1.2% (A)
6.5%
Low
8:00
GBP
Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (M/M) (JAN)
1.1% (A)
-0.5%
Low
8:00
GBP
Halifax House Price (3M/Y) (JAN)
7.3% (A)
7.5%
Low
9:00
GBP
New Car Registrations (Y/Y) (JAN)
7.6% (A)
23.8%
Low
11:00
EUR
German Factory Orders s.a. (M/M) (DEC)
0.2%
2.2%
Medium
11:00
EUR
German Factory Orders n.s.a. (Y/Y) (DEC)
6.3%
6.8%
Medium
12:00
GBP
Bank of England Rate Decision
0.50%
0.50%
High
12:00
GBP
BOE Asset Purchase Target (£)
375B
375B
High
12:45
EUR
European Central Bank Rate Decision
0.25%
0.25%
High
13:30
EUR
ECB’s Draghi Holds Press Conference
–
–
High
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EUR/USD
1.3417
1.3473
1.3503
1.3529
1.3559
1.3585
1.3641
GBP/USD
1.6123
1.6212
1.6261
1.6301
1.6350
1.6390
1.6479
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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