Talking Points:
Quiet European, US Economic Calendars Put Spotlight on “Fed-Speak”
US Dollar May Rise if Pro-Taper Evans Comments Follow NFP Report
Aussie Falls, Yen Gains as Chinese Exports Fall Most Since August 2009
A quiet economic data docket in European and US trading hours offers little in terms of market-moving event risk. On the official commentary front, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans is due to come across the wires. While Mr Evans is not a member of the policy-setting FOMC committee this year, traders may be atypically responsive to any clues about the central bank’s thinking that he offers given the absence of other catalysts. Rhetoric supportive of continued “tapering” of QE asset purchases in the context of Friday’s upbeat US employment data may drive the US Dollar higher after prices found support near February’s lows.
The Australian Dollar underperformed to start the trading week in the wake of a dramatically disappointing set of Chinese Trade Balance figures reported over the weekend. The plunge in exports was particularly dramatic, with overseas sales down -18.1% year-on-year to produce the largest drawdown since August 2009. China is Australia’s largest trading partner and the dismal data set fueled concerns that a slowdown in the former country will reverberate in the latter, undermining the probability that the RBA’s next move might be an interest rate hike after the current period of stability.The Japanese Yen traded higher as worrying cues from the world’s second-largest economy weighed on Asian shares and drove demand for the safe-haven currency.
New to FX? START HERE!
Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
1:30
CNY
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
2.0%
2.1%
2.5%
1:30
CNY
Producer Price Index (YoY)
-2.0%
-1.9%
-1.6%
21:45
NZD
Manufacturing Activity Volume (QoQ) (4Q)
5.7%
–
1.3%
21:45
NZD
Manufacturing Activity (4Q)
6.3%
–
6.2%
23:50
JPY
Current Account Total (¥) (JAN)
-1589.0B
-1411.8B
-638.6B
23:50
JPY
Adjusted Current Account Total (¥) (JAN)
-588.3B
-548.9B
68.6B
23:50
JPY
Trade Balance – BOP Basis (¥) (JAN)
-2345.4B
-2589.6B
-1047.4B
23:50
JPY
GDP (QoQ) (4Q F)
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
23:50
JPY
GDP Annualized (4Q F)
0.7%
0.9%
1.0%
23:50
JPY
Nominal GDP (QoQ) (4Q F)
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
23:50
JPY
GDP Consumer Spending (QoQ) (4Q F)
0.4%
–
0.5%
23:50
JPY
GDP Business Spending (QoQ) (4Q F)
0.8%
–
1.3%
23:50
JPY
GDP Deflator (YoY) (4Q F)
-0.3%
-0.4%
-0.4%
23:50
JPY
Bank Lending incl. Trusts (YoY) (FEB)
2.2%
2.4%
2.3%
23:50
JPY
Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (FEB)
2.4%
–
2.5%
4:30
JPY
Bankruptcies (YoY) (FEB)
–
–
-7.49%
5:00
JPY
Eco Watchers Survey: Current (FEB)
–
54.1
54.7
5:00
JPY
Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (FEB)
–
50.5
49
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP
PREV
IMPACT
8:15
CHF
Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (JAN)
–
2.3%
Medium
9:30
GBP
Lloyds Employment Confidence (FEB)
–
-2
Low
9:30
EUR
Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (MAR)
14
13.3
Low
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EUR/USD
1.3755
1.3818
1.3846
1.3881
1.3909
1.3944
1.4007
GBP/USD
1.6577
1.6656
1.6685
1.6735
1.6764
1.6814
1.6893
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To receive Ilya’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE
Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.
Source: Daily fx