Talking Points:
British Pound Heads into 4Q GDP on a Rate Hike High
Dollar Losing Safe Haven Traction as Emerging Market Pressure Eases
Euro Holds Despite Renewed Greece Tension, Wavering Investment Appetite
British Pound Heads into 4Q GDP on a Rate Hike High
Top event risk for the coming 24 hour period goes to the British pound. On the UK docket for the upcoming session, we have the fourth quarter (4Q) GDP release. This is a particularly meaningful piece of event risk as its economic breadth and natural media-impact can generate substantial interest rate speculation. Yield forecasts have arguably stood as the pound’s strongest fundamental driver over the past six months – a period in which the currency has rallied between 14 and 3 percent against all of its counterparts. Changes in rate speculation can be more influential than current rates as capital moves to take advantage of the further inflow expected as higher returns are realized. Yet, has the market over-extended itself in its sterling expectations? While buoyant CPI levels and an unemployment rate that has dropped to within arm’s reach of BoE’s forward guidance target, the central bank will likely attempt to change expectations. A ‘disappointing’ GDP could ease their effort.
Dollar Losing Safe Haven Traction as Emerging Market Pressure Eases
The dollar’s rebound Friday didn’t last very long. With the intensity of the recent risk aversion winds fading Monday, the greenback’s safe haven status cooled. Fear has not completely passed over the market, but the threat of an imminent crisis no longer dangles over the market. For the dollar, crisis equates to liquidity demand – the currency’s last bastion appeal. In the currency’s performance through the opening session, we see the hallmark of a risk rebalance as the high-yield currencies (Aussie and Kiwi) advanced alongside the hawkish leaning British pound, while the fellow ‘safe havens’ and troubled currencies (Euro and Loonie) eased. The market may keep this holding pattern until the FOMC.
Euro Holds Despite Renewed Greece Tension, Wavering Investment Appetite
Systemic concerns to the Eurozone’s health aren’t as infectious as they used to be. There were a few notable concerns arising over the opening session of the new trading week, and yet the Euro tended to perform along the traditional ‘risk’ lines. From the docket, the only indicator of merit was Germany’s IFO business confidence report for January. The survey’s forecast measure bested expectations with a near-three year high. Confidence in the regional economy’s best positioned member economy though seems to carry little status for the broader Eurozone. More pressing, a study by the OECD suggesting EZ banks face a total capital shortfall of €84 billion made the rounds, the Finance Ministers meeting showed there is still a standoff on Greece and ECB member Knot remarked no further easing is needed for money markets Saturday.
Yen Crosses Rebound as Most Risk-Sensitive Rebound
The yen crosses are among the FX market’s most risk-sensitive currency pairings. Given their exceptionally low carry, up to 45 percent advance over the past 18 months and clear dependency on an escalating stimulus effort by the Bank of Japan; a stable backdrop for risk appetite is exceptionally important to maintaining the status quo bull trend. As such, the recent volatility in the financial markets has unsettled traders. Against the increased headwinds to traditional risk trend flows, the monetary policy authorityhas kept noticeably quiet on plans for further stimulus. Meanwhile, despite the yen’s universal depreciation in December, the month’s trade deficit widened to -¥1.302 trillion.
Australian Dollar Day’s Best Performer as Chinese Financial Fears Abate
Amongst the majors, the Australian dollar was the best performer on the day Monday. The strongest performance was measured against the fading rate forecasts of the Canadian dollar, while its most restrained advance was established versus the robust outlook and preoccupation of the British pound. This performance was in part a rebound from pressured risk currencies while also having its roots in more tangible fundamentals. This morning’s business confidence report extended an existing bullish lean. The origination seemed more rooted in the country’s Chinese connections. Australia’s primary trade partner saw its capital markets steady on reports that a 3 billion yuan trust that was on the verge of default had resolved investors’ claims and averted knocking over that first domino in China’s financial markets.
New Zealand Dollar Rate Expectations Suggest Market Open to Bullish Surprise
We are just over a day out from the RBNZ’s rate decision Wednesday (an hour after the FOMC decision), but the market doesn’t seem to be doing much to price in the projected rate hikes that Governor Wheeler offered late last year. In fact, since the central banker set the stage for ‘225 bps’ worth of hikes ‘over the next 9 quarters’, the currency has put in for a very spotty performance. Over that time, the kiwi has done well versus its Canadian (+4.4 percent) and Australian (+3.1 percent) counterparts. Yet, it is virtually unchanged versus the anemic yields of the Dollar, Euro and Yen. Despite the central bank’s heavy, hawkish lean; the Kiwi dollar is treading water. Perhaps a sign it is undervalued.
Emerging Markets: Argentine Peso Stabilizes, Outflow Continues for Others
Though it didn’t suffer the same pace of collapse as the last 48 hours of this past week, the MSCI’s Emerging Market Index continued its bearish phase with a third consecutive daily decline to a near five-month low. Meanwhile, the sector’s volatility measured nudged slightly higher to a four-month high 9.8 percent. This is a bigger picture reflection of an important, risk-sensitive segment of the market that has cooled its breakneck pace of collapses; though has notably not reversed course. Perhaps the most prominent story was the Argentine Peso’s virtually unchanged level Monday – a far cry from the 13.2 percent single-day loss versus the USD Thursday. The rudder to stabilize the market was new monthly limits on dollar purchases to a fifth of a worker’s monthly wages. These capital controls do little to encourage foreign investment or repatriation though. Meanwhile, the Brazilian Real lost 1 percent versus the dollar, Indian Rupee 0.7 percent and Indonesian Rupiah 0.5 percent.
Gold Suffers Second Biggest Drop of 2014 as Liquidity Risk Subsides
The difficulty with escalating the recent risk aversion theme into one of genuine liquidity concern is undermining gold’s bullish performance. Though the precious metal managed to closed out Friday with its fifth consecutive weekly advance – the last run of this consistency was back in September 2012 before the long bear wave began – the conviction behind the is certainly lacking. The 1 percent drop from the metal Monday once again maintained an unusual, positive correlation with the US dollar. Both are suffering from the same fundamental circumstance. One is a target for capital flows for liquidity (the greenback) and the other is considered an alternative to fiat when there is a high probability of systemic manipulation (gold). With the worst offenders in the Emerging Market set settling, gold’s problems once again outshine its unusual appeals.
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ECONOMIC DATA
GMT
Currency
Release
Survey
Previous
Comments
0:30
AUD
Australia Business Confidence – NAB (DEC)
5
Since three year highs of 1.8 in September, the figure has pulled back.
1:30
CNY
China Industrial Profits (YoY) (DEC)
13.2%
Chinese data will be closely watched following PMI figures that indicated contraction last week.
5:00
JPY
Japan Small Business Confidence (JAN)
51.1
Over the past 10 years this reading has barely been able to hold above 50.
7:45
EUR
France Consumer Confidence (JAN)
85
85
Has not been above 86 since 2012.
8:00
EUR
Spain House Mortgage Approvals
14704
Has been steadily declining since 2006
9:00
EUR
Italy Consumer Confidence (JAN)
96.7
96.2
September was a two year high here.
9:30
GBP
UK GDP (4Q A)
0.7%
0.8%
YoY GDP is expected to come in at its highest since 2008.
9:30
GBP
UK Index of Services (NOV)
0.3%
0.1%
11:00
EUR
Ireland Retail Sales
0.78
1.7%
Retail Sales largely positive though declining for the past five months
13:30
USD
US Durable Goods Orders (DEC)
1.8%
3.4%
The FOMC will be taking note of home price data following this Monday’s disappointing housing data.
14:00
USD
US S&P / CaseShiller House Price Composite (DEC)
13.8%
13.61%
15:00
USD
US Conference Board Consumer Confidence (JAN)
78.0
78.1
Consumer Confidence has been above 70 since May.
23:00
KRW
South Korea Current Account Balance (DEC)
$6033.3M
October was the highest reading on our 10 year records.
23:30
AUD
Australia Leading Index – Westpac (DEC)
-0.1%
The prior print was the worst since the spring of 2013.
GMT
Currency
Upcoming Events & Speeches
8:00
EUR
European Union Finance Ministers Meet
9:30
EUR
Spain to Sell 3 and 9-Month Bills
10:15
EUR
Greece PM Samaras to Speak
12:00
EUR
ECB Reports Open Market Operation Figures
13:15
GBP
BoE Governor Carney to Speak in Scotland
14:30
EUR
ECB Reports Refinancing Operation Figures
15:00
EUR
Spain’s Guindos Testifies Before the EU Parliament
16:30
USD
US to Sell 4-Week Bills
17:30
EUR
Portugal Eco Min Lima Presser on Foreign Investment
18:00
USD
US to Sell $32 Bln in 2-Year Bills
21:30
USD
US API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
22:10
NZD
New Zealand Fin Min English First Half Update
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal
To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table
CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMT
SCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT
Currency
USD/MXN
USD/TRY
USD/ZAR
USD/HKD
USD/SGD
Currency
USD/SEK
USD/DKK
USD/NOK
Resist 2
13.4800
2.3800
11.8750
7.8165
1.3650
Resist 2
7.5800
5.8950
6.5135
Resist 1
13.3300
2.3000
11.0000
7.8075
1.3250
Resist 1
6.8155
5.8475
6.2660
Spot
13.2758
2.2520
10.8441
7.7572
1.2783
Spot
6.4818
5.4997
6.1694
Support 1
12.6000
2.1000
10.2500
7.7490
1.2000
Support 1
6.0800
5.3350
5.7450
Support 2
12.4200
1.7500
9.3700
7.7450
1.1800
Support 2
5.8085
5.2715
5.5655
INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT
CCY
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
EUR/JPY
Gold
Res 3
1.3665
1.6594
105.36
0.9179
1.1059
0.8941
0.8396
143.12
1262.71
Res 2
1.3641
1.6565
105.11
0.9160
1.1037
0.8919
0.8374
142.75
1257.52
Res 1
1.3617
1.6535
104.87
0.9140
1.1016
0.8897
0.8352
142.39
1252.33
Spot
1.3569
1.6477
104.39
0.9101
1.0973
0.8853
0.8308
141.65
1241.95
Supp 1
1.3521
1.6419
103.91
0.9062
1.0930
0.8809
0.8264
140.91
1231.57
Supp 2
1.3497
1.6389
103.67
0.9042
1.0909
0.8787
0.8242
140.55
1226.38
Supp 3
1.3473
1.6360
103.42
0.9023
1.0887
0.8765
0.8220
140.18
1221.19
v
— Written by: John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact John, email jkicklighter@dailyfx.com. Follow me on twitter at http://www.twitter.com/JohnKicklighter
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Source: Daily fx