The US Dollar and Japanese Yen appear vulnerable as a corrective bounce in risk appetite is reinforced by expectations for an improvement in US consumer confidence.
Talking Points
German CPI Unlikely to Stir Euro Volatility After ECB Rate Decision
Dollar, Yen at Risk as S&P 500 Futures Point to Risk Appetite Recovery
US Consume Confidence Gauge Set to Hit 62-Month High in November
The final revision of October’s German CPI figures headlines a lackluster economic calendar in European hours. Expectations call for confirmation of initial estimates that put the annual inflation rate at 2 percent, unchanged from September. Barring a sharp revision to the downside, the outcome is unlikely to elicit a strong response from forex traders in the immediate aftermath of the yesterday’s ECB rate decision, where central bank President Mario Draghi offered little in terms of concrete policy guidance. September’s UK Trade Balance data is also on tap.
On the sentiment front, S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing sharply higher in late Asian hours, hinting at a risk-on mood into the end of the trading week. Such an outcome seems reasonable after two days of aggressive selling that pushed the benchmark stock index to the lowest in three months. Such an outcome may weigh on the safe-haven US Dollar and Japanese Yen against their major counterparts. A pickup in US consumer confidence may reinforce this dynamic. Expectations suggest a sentiment gauge from the University of Michigan rose to the highest level since September 2007 in November.
Asia Session: What Happened
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
20:00
NZD
REINZ Housing Price Index (MoM) (OCT)
1.5%
–
0.6%
20:00
NZD
REINZ Housing Price Index(OCT)
3495.1
–
3442.1
20:00
NZD
REINZ House Sales (YoY) (OCT)
32.6%
–
8.0%
21:45
NZD
NZ Card Spending – Retail (MoM) (OCT)
0.4%
0.3%
-0.6%
21:45
NZD
NZ Card Spending (MoM) (OCT)
0.4%
–
-0.6%
23:50
JPY
Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (OCT)
1.9%
2.0%
2.1% (R+)
23:50
JPY
Japan Money Stock M2+CD (YoY) (OCT)
2.3%
2.4%
2.4%
1:30
CNY
Producer Price Index (YoY) (OCT)
-2.8%
-2.7%
-3.6%
1:30
CNY
Consumer Price Index (YoY) (OCT)
1.7%
1.9%
1.9%
5:00
JPY
Consumer Confidence (OCT)
39.7
39.5
40.1
5:30
CNY
Industrial Production (YoY)
9.6%
9.4%
9.2%
5:30
CNY
Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (OCT)
10.0%
9.9%
10.0%
5:30
CNY
Retail Sales (YoY) (OCT)
14.5%
14.4%
14.2%
5:30
CNY
Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (OCT)
14.1%
14.1%
14.1%
5:30
CNY
Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD (YoY) (OCT)
20.7%
20.6%
20.5%
Euro Session: What to Expect
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP
PREV
IMPACT
7:00
EUR
German CPI (MoM) (OCT F)
0.0%
0.0%
Medium
7:00
EUR
German CPI (YoY) (OCT F)
2.0%
2.0%
Medium
7:00
EUR
German CPI – EU Harmonised (MoM) (OCT F)
0.1%
0.1%
Medium
7:00
EUR
German CPI – EU Harmonised (YoY) (OCT F)
2.1%
2.1%
Medium
7:30
EUR
French Bank of France Business Sentiment (OCT)
90
92
Low
7:45
EUR
French Industrial Production (MoM) (SEP)
-1.0%
1.5%
Low
7:45
EUR
French Industrial Production (YoY) (SEP)
-0.1%
-0.9%
Low
7:45
EUR
French Survey of Industrial Investments
–
–
Low
7:45
EUR
French Central Govt. Balance (€) (SEP)
–
-97.7B
Low
7:45
EUR
French Manufacturing Production (MoM) (SEP)
-1.3%
1.8%
Low
7:45
EUR
French Manufacturing Production (YoY) (SEP)
-0.1%
-0.4%
Low
9:00
EUR
Italian Industrial Production wda (YoY) (SEP)
-4.7%
-5.2%
Low
9:00
EUR
Italian Industrial Production nsa (YoY) (SEP)
–
-5.1%
Low
9:00
EUR
Italian Industrial Production sa (MoM) (SEP)
-1.6%
1.7%
Low
9:30
GBP
Visible Trade Balance (£) (SEP)
-8900
-9844
Medium
9:30
GBP
Trade Balance Non EU (£) (SEP)
-4600
-4972
Low
9:30
GBP
Total Trade Balance (£) (SEP)
-3200
-4169
Low
Critical Levels
CCY
SUPPORT
RESISTANCE
EURUSD
1.2716
1.2812
GBPUSD
1.5941
1.6048
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
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Source: Daily fx