Talking Points
EURUSD struggles below key technical resistance 1.3767
Weekly opening range support break shifts scalp bias to the short-side
Event risk on tap from Eurozone & US heading into month-end
EURUSD Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
EURUSD reacts to key Fibonacci resistance at 1.3767
Daily RSI failure to mount 60 / Support trigger break – bearish
Weekly opening range support break- bearish
Near-term support 1.3660- Break targets objectives at 1.3590/1.3613, 1.3515 & 1.3457/76
Breach above 1.3767 resistance (bearish invalidation) targets 1.38, 1.3830 & 1.3895
Key Events Ahead: German Inflation & Employment, Eurozone Consumer Confidence& US Durable Goods tomorrow, Eurozone Unemployment & US GDP data on Friday
EURUSD Scalp Chart
Notes: An outside reversal day on February 6th shifted our focus to the topside in the EURUSD with the pair completing a 100% extension of the advance off the February low at 1.3767. The euro has since traded in a tight range below this mark with daily RSI failing to hold above the 60-threshold before breaking a support trigger dating back to the January low.
The pair has now made a weekly opening range break to the short-side just below key resistance at 1.3767. Our immediate focus is lower on the pair while below 1.3707 with only a breach above 1.3767 warranting long-side exposure. The euro came into an important support zone today defined by the 38.2% retracement of the February advance at 1.3660 and we’ll let intra-day RSI reset to offer more favorable short triggers. With time cycle analysis also turning heavy here, we’ll look to sell rallies / breaks of support while below the weekly range low.
It’s important to remain prudent heading into the close of the week with end-of-month flows and key data prints later this week from the Euro zone & the US likely to fuel added volatility.Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets
Timeframe
Level
Significance
Resistance Target 1
30min
1.3684/89
50% Retracement / 61.8% Ext
Resistance Target 2
30min
1.3707
Weekly ORL
Resistance Target 3
30min
1.3733
61.8% Retracement / Feb 19th Close
Bearish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
1.3767
100% Extension / Weekly ORH
Break Target 1
Daily / 30min
1.3800/03
100% Extension / 78.6% Retrace / 2013 Close High
Break Target 2
Daily / 30min
1.3830
61.8% Retrace / 2008 TL Resistance
Break Target 3
30min
1.3849
61.8% Fib Extension
Break Target 4
Daily / 30min
1.3892/95
2013 High / 1.618% Fib Extension
Bullish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
1.3659/64
38.2% Retrace / 50% Fib Extension
Break Target 1
Daily / 30min
1.3620/24
Nov High / 100DMA / 50% Retracement
Break Target 2
Daily / 30min
1.3589
61.8% Retracement
Break Target 3
30min
1.3561
February 12th Swing Low / Soft Support
Break Target 4
30min
1.3539
78.6% Retracement
Break Target 5
Daily / 30min
1.3515
61.8% Fibonacci Extension
Average True Range
Daily (20)
72
Profit Targets 15-18pips
*ORH: Opening Range High
*ORL: Opening Range Low
Other Setups in Play:
EURJPY Rally at Risk Sub 141- Weekly Opening Range in Focus
USDCAD Reversal Underway- Long Scalps Favored Above 1.10
GBPAUD Weekly Range in Focus- Bullish Scalp Bias at Risk Sub 1.86
GBPCAD Challenging Feb Range High- Scalp Bias Bullish Above 1.8037
AUDNZD Target Key Resistance- Bullish Scalp Bias at Risk Sub 1.09
—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
Join Michael for Live Scalping Webinar on Thursday morning on DailyFX Plus (Exclusive of Live Clients) at 1130 GMT (11:30ET)
Interested in learning about Fibonacci? Watch this Video
Source: Daily fx
