Talking Points:
US Dollar Down Overnight, Swiss Franc Higher on Upbeat 2Q GDP Figures
Euro, Pound Eye German CPI and UK GDP Data to Shape Jackson Hole Bets
See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App
The US Dollar corrected lower in overnight trade having rallied against most of the majors in the preceding 24 hours. The Dow Jones FXCM USD Index – a measure of the greenback’s average value against its top counterparts – gained 0.2 percent yesterday to hit a two-week high. The Swiss Franc outperformed after second-quarter GDP figures topped expectations, showing output unexpectedly grew 0.2 percent. Economists were penciling in a 0.1 percent contraction ahead of the release.
Looking ahead, revised UK GDP figures and a preliminary look at Augusts’ German CPI report headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. The former is expected to confirm that output grew 0.7 percent in the second quarter. A cautious upward drift in UK economic news-flow relative to consensus forecasts may open the door for an upside surprise however.
Such a result could boost speculation that BOE Governor Mark Carney will strike a hawkish tone at this weekend’s central bankers’ summit in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This would be consistent with Carney’s dismissive rhetoric about recent turmoil in China earlier this month. Needless to say, such an outcome would bode well for the British Pound.
Meanwhile, Germany’s headline inflation rate is seen edging lower to 0.1 percent, the lowest in six months. This too is likely to be judged through the prism of what it could mean for ECB rhetoric to be unveiled at the Jackson Hole Symposium over the weekend, with Vitor Constancio set to speak.
The ECB Vice President and his Executive Board colleague Peter Praet both hinted the central bank could expand its QE effort if needed in separate speeches this week. A weak CPI print may fuel speculation of just such a development to be telegraphed in commentary over the weekend, weighing on the Euro.
New to FX? START HERE!
Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
CNH
Leading Index (JUL)
–
–
98.71
23:05
GBP
GfK Consumer Confidence (AUG)
7
4
4
23:30
JPY
Jobless Rate (JUL)
3.3%
3.4%
3.4%
23:30
JPY
Job-To-Applicant Ratio (JUL)
1.21
1.19
1.19
23:30
JPY
Overall Household Spending (YoY) (JUL)
-0.2%
0.5%
-2.0%
23:30
JPY
Natl CPI (YoY) (JUL)
0.2%
0.2%
0.4%
23:30
JPY
Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food (YoY) (JUL)
0.0%
-0.2%
0.1%
23:30
JPY
Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUL)
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
23:30
JPY
Tokyo CPI (YoY) (AUG)
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
23:30
JPY
Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (AUG)
-0.1%
-0.2%
-0.1%
23:30
JPY
Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (AUG)
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
23:50
JPY
Retail Trade (YoY) (JUL)
1.6%
1.1%
1.0%
23:50
JPY
Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL)
1.2%
0.6%
-0.6%
23:50
JPY
Large Retailers’ Sales (JUL)
2.1%
1.2%
-0.3%
01:30
CNH
Industrial Profits (YoY) (JUL)
-2.9%
–
-0.3%
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP/ACT
PREV
IMPACT
05:45
CHF
GDP (QoQ) (2Q)
0.2% (A)
-0.2%
Medium
05:45
CHF
GDP (YoY) (2Q)
1.2% (A)
1.1%
Medium
08:30
GBP
GDP (QoQ) (2Q P)
0.7%
0.7%
Medium
08:30
GBP
GDP (YoY) (2Q P)
2.6%
2.6%
Medium
08:30
GBP
Private Consumption (QoQ) (2Q P)
0.7%
0.9%
Low
08:30
GBP
Government Spending (QoQ) (2Q P)
0.0%
0.9%
Low
08:30
GBP
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (QoQ) (2Q P)
0.5%
2.0%
Low
08:30
GBP
Exports (QoQ) (2Q P)
2.0%
0.4%
Low
08:30
GBP
Imports (QoQ) (2Q P)
0.6%
2.3%
Low
08:30
GBP
Total Business Investment (QoQ) (2Q P)
1.5%
2.0%
Low
08:30
GBP
Total Business Investment (YoY) (2Q P)
3.8%
5.7%
Low
08:30
GBP
Index of Services (MoM) (JUN)
0.4%
0.3%
Low
08:30
GBP
Index of Services (3M/3M) (JUN)
0.7%
0.4%
Low
08:30
GBP
Lloyds Business Barometer (AUG)
–
50
Low
09:00
EUR
Eurozone Economic Confidence (AUG)
103.8
104
Low
09:00
EUR
Eurozone Business Climate Indicator (AUG)
0.34
0.39
Low
09:00
EUR
Eurozone Industrial Confidence (AUG)
-3.2
-2.9
Low
09:00
EUR
Eurozone Services Confidence (AUG)
8.8
8.9
Low
09:00
EUR
Eurozone Consumer Confidence (AUG F)
–
-6.8
Low
12:00
EUR
German CPI (MoM) (AUG P)
-0.1%
0.2%
Medium
12:00
EUR
German CPI (YoY) (AUG P)
0.1%
0.2%
Medium
12:00
EUR
German CPI – EU Harmonized (MoM) (AUG P)
-0.1%
0.3%
Medium
12:00
EUR
German CPI – EU Harmonized (YoY) (AUG P)
0.1%
0.1%
Medium
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EURUSD
1.0949
1.1110
1.1178
1.1271
1.1339
1.1432
1.1593
GBPUSD
1.5149
1.5288
1.5345
1.5427
1.5484
1.5566
1.5705
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To receive Ilya’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE
Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.
Source: Daily fx