Talking Points:
Euro Unlikely to Find Lasting Cues in German Unemployment, CPI Reports
US 3Q GDP Slowdown May Not Amount to Major Setback for the US Dollar
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German Unemployment and CPI reports headline the economic calendar in European hours. Jobless ranks are expected to shrink by 4,000 in October, keeping the unemployment rate unchanged at 6.7 percent. Separately, the benchmark inflation rate is expected to edge higher to 0.9 percent after lingering at a four-year low of 0.8 percent through the third quarter.
On balance, neither data release seems likely to produce a lasting response from the Euro considering the outcomes’ limited implications for near-term ECB monetary policy. The central bank is still in the implementation phase of a medley of stimulus efforts and will likely want to see how things progress for some time after everything is in place. That means additional easing probably won’t materialize until next year, putting policy on auto-pilot in the interim.
Looking ahead, third-quarter US GDP figures will enter the spotlight. An annualized increase of 3 percent is expected, marking a slowdown from the 4.6 percent gain recorded in the three months through June. The latter number may have been exaggerated on a comparative basis by the weather-linked slump in the first three month of the year. With that in mind, a pullback closer to but still above the post-crisis average (2.2 percent) may not prove to be a major setback for the US Dollar, particularly after a seemingly confident FOMC opted against a dovish rhetoric shift at yesterday’s monetary policy announcement (as expected). We remain short EURUSD and long USDCHF.
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Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
20:00
NZD
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
3.50%
3.50%
3.50%
0:00
AUD
HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (SEP)
0.0%
–
3.3%
0:30
AUD
Import Price Index (QoQ) (3Q)
-0.8%
0.2%
-3.0%
0:30
AUD
Export Price Index (QoQ) (3Q)
-3.9%
-4.7%
-7.9%
2:00
JPY
Vehicle Production (YoY) (SEP)
-2.6%
–
-6.7%
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP
PREV
IMPACT
7:00
GBP
Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (OCT)
8.5%
9.4%
Low
7:00
GBP
Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (OCT)
0.3%
-0.2%
Low
7:00
CHF
UBS Consumption Indicator (SEP)
–
1.35
Medium
8:00
CHF
KOF Leading Indicator (OCT)
99.2
99.1
Medium
8:55
EUR
German Unemployment Rate s.a. (OCT)
6.7%
6.7%
High
8:55
EUR
German Unemployment Change (OCT)
4K
12K
High
9:30
GBP
Lloyds Business Barometer (OCT)
–
57
Low
10:00
EUR
Eurozone Economic Confidence (OCT)
99.7
99.9
Low
10:00
EUR
Eurozone Industrial Confidence (OCT)
-5.5
-5.5
Low
10:00
EUR
Eurozone Business Climate Indicator (OCT)
0.05
0.07
Low
10:00
EUR
Eurozone Consumer Confidence (OCT F)
-11.1
-11.1
Medium
10:00
EUR
Eurozone Services Confidence (OCT)
3.1
3.2
Low
13:00
EUR
German CPI (MoM) (OCT P)
-0.1%
0.0%
High
13:00
EUR
German CPI (YoY) (OCT P)
0.9%
0.8%
High
13:00
EUR
German CPI – EU Harmonized (MoM) (OCT P)
-0.1%
0.0%
High
13:00
EUR
German CPI – EU Harmonized (YoY) (OCT P)
0.9%
0.8%
High
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EURUSD
1.2398
1.2538
1.2585
1.2678
1.2725
1.2818
1.2958
GBPUSD
1.5743
1.5901
1.5956
1.6059
1.6114
1.6217
1.6375
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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