Talking Points:
Euro May Drop Further as Soft PMI Data Bolsters Stimulus Expansion Bets
Australian, NZ Dollars Rise as Post-ECB Risk Rally Moves to Asian Bourses
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The preliminary set of October’s Eurozone PMI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The regional Composite gauge is expected to show the pace of manufacturing- and service-sector growth slowed for the second consecutive month, registering at the weakest level since February.
Economic news-flow out of the currency bloc has increasingly disappointed relative to consensus forecasts over the past month, hinting that analysts are underestimating the degree of malaise plaguing the region. That opens the door for a downside surprise, which may feed ECB stimulus expansion bets and compound downside pressure on the Euro.
The sentiment-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed in overnight trade as Asian bourses mirrored yesterday’s swell in risk appetite on Wall Street. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index rose over 1 percent as traders cheered a dovish ECB policy announcement that paved the way for further easing at the central bank’s December sit-down.
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Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
01:30
CNY
China September Property Prices
–
–
–
01:35
JPY
Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg (OCT P)
52.5
50.5
51.0
02:00
CNY
Conference Board Leading Index (SEP)
339.5
–
334.2
05:00
JPY
Leading Index CI (AUG F)
103.5
–
103.5
05:00
JPY
Coincident Index (AUG F)
112.2
–
112.5
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP
PREV
IMPACT
07:00
EUR
Markit France Mfg PMI (OCT P)
50.2
50.6
Low
07:00
EUR
Markit France Services PMI (OCT P)
51.7
51.9
Low
07:00
EUR
Markit France Composite PMI (OCT P)
51.6
51.9
Low
07:30
EUR
Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (OCT P)
51.7
52.3
Medium
07:30
EUR
Markit Germany Services PMI (OCT P)
53.9
54.1
Medium
07:30
EUR
Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (OCT P)
53.7
54.1
Medium
08:00
EUR
Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (OCT P)
51.7
52
Medium
08:00
EUR
Markit Eurozone Services PMI (OCT P)
53.5
53.7
Medium
08:00
EUR
Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (OCT P)
53.4
53.6
Medium
09:00
EUR
Eurozone 2Q Government Debt
–
–
Low
09:00
EUR
Eurozone 2Q Government Deficit
–
–
Low
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EURUSD
1.0685
1.0936
1.1022
1.1187
1.1273
1.1438
1.1689
GBPUSD
1.5146
1.5285
1.5339
1.5424
1.5478
1.5563
1.5702
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Source: Daily fx