Talking Points:
Euro Looks to First ECB Meeting Minutes Release for QE Dynamics Clues
US Dollar Down as Markets Trim Fed Rate Hike Bets After FOMC Minutes
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The US Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The greenback’s descent tracked a drop in front-end Treasury yields, pointing to a deteriorating Fed policy outlook as the catalyst behind the move.
As we suspected, investors pared back rate-hike bets after minutes from January’s FOMC meeting showed officials worried about worsening global conditions and expected a stronger currency to be a persistent drag on exports.
The New Zealand Dollar led the way against its US counterpart as an uptick on fourth-quarter PPI figures weighed against RBNZ easing speculation. Indeed, the Kiwi’s advance paced a push higher on front-end borrowing costs.
The release of minutes from January’s ECB policy meeting headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The report will mark the first publication of its kind for the currency bloc’s monetary authority. That makes it somewhat difficult to precisely forecast what kind of information may appear in its pages.
January’s meeting marked the introduction of the ECB’s full-blown QE program. With that in mind, traders will be keen gauge what may lead to the program being expanded or otherwise altered from the initial €60/month effort. Rhetoric opening the door greater accommodation before the initial QE push runs expires in mid-July may weigh on the Euro.
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Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
21:00
NZD
ANZ Job Advertisements (JAN)
-1.1%
–
2.2%
21:45
NZD
PPI Output (QoQ) (4Q)
-0.1%
–
1.1%
21:45
NZD
PPI Input (QoQ) (4Q)
-0.4%
–
-1.5%
23:50
JPY
Trade Balance Total (¥) (JAN)
-1177.5B
-1681.3B
-665.2B
23:50
JPY
Trade Balance Adjusted (¥) (JAN)
-406.1B
-598.1B
-620.7B
23:50
JPY
Imports (YoY) (JAN)
-9.0%
-4.9%
1.9%
23:50
JPY
Exports (YoY) (JAN)
17.0%
13.5%
12.8%
00:00
NZD
ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (FEB)
124.0
–
128.90
00:00
NZD
ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (FEB)
-3.8%
–
1.9%
00:30
AUD
RBA FX Transactions Other (A$) (JAN)
56M
–
124M
00:30
AUD
RBA FX Transactions Gov’t (A$) (JAN)
-325M
–
-1193M
00:30
AUD
RBA FX Transactions Market (A$) (JAN)
296M
–
1081M
04:30
JPY
All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (DEC)
-0.3%
-0.3%
0.0%
05:00
JPY
BOJ Monthly Economic Report (FEB)
–
–
–
05:00
JPY
Coincident Index (DEC F)
110.7
–
110.7
05:00
JPY
Leading Index (DEC F)
105.6
–
105.2
05:30
JPY
Tokyo Dept Store Sales (YoY) (JAN)
–
0.3%
05:30
JPY
Nationwide Dept Store Sales (YoY) (JAN)
–
-1.7%
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP
PREV
IMPACT
07:00
CHF
Trade Balance (CHF) (JAN)
1.20B
1.51B
Low
07:00
CHF
Imports Real (MoM) (JAN)
–
0.7%
Low
07:00
CHF
Exports Real (MoM) (JAN)
–
-3.1%
Low
09:00
EUR
Eurozone Current Account s.a. (€) (DEC)
–
18.1B
Low
09:00
EUR
Eurozone Current Account n.s.a. (€) (DEC)
–
24.6B
Low
11:00
GBP
CBI Trends Total Orders (FEB)
6.0
4.0
Low
11:00
GBP
CBI Trends Selling Prices (FEB)
-7.0
-6.0
Low
12:30
EUR
ECB Publishes Account of Policy Meeting
–
–
High
15:00
EUR
Eurozone Consumer Confidence (FEB A)
-7.5
-8.5
Medium
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EURUSD
1.1218
1.1300
1.1349
1.1382
1.1431
1.1464
1.1546
GBPUSD
1.5143
1.5281
1.5359
1.5419
1.5497
1.5557
1.5695
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.
Source: Daily fx
