Talking Points:
Euro Gains on Pickup in PMI Readings Unlikely to Yield Follow-Through
US Dollar Vulnerable if Soft CPI Print Undercuts Fed Rate Hike Outlook
Yen Drops Alongside Japanese Yields, Aussie Down on Weak China PMI
The preliminary set of November’s Eurozone PMI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The region-wide composite gauge is forecast to show manufacturing- and service-sector activity growth narrowly accelerated for a second consecutive month. An upbeat result may offer a short-lived boost to the Euro but follow-through seems unlikely considering the inability of such outcomes to meaningfully alter the ECB’s decidedly dovish posture.
Later in the day, the spotlight turns to October’s US CPI report. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is seen edging lower to 1.6 percent, the lowest in seven months. Investors may interpret a weak result as suggesting that the Fed will be relatively slow to issue its first post-QE interest rate hike, punishing the US Dollar.
The Japanese Yen underperformed in overnight trade, sliding as much as 0.6 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move tracked a drop in Japan’s benchmark 10-year bond yield, hinting the selloff reflected bets on increasingly accommodative monetary policy after GDP figures released earlier in the week showed the world’s third-largest economy has sunk back into recession.
The Australian Dollar likewise faced selling pressure after the HSBC Chinese Manufacturing PMI gauge proved disappointing, showing factory-sector activity unexpectedly stalled in November. The East Asian giant is Australia’s top export market, meaning a slowdown there translates into an ebbing outlook for cross-border sales that bears down on overall economic growth and RBA monetary policy projections.
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Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
21:00
NZD
ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (OCT)
-0.3%
–
2.3%
21:45
NZD
PPI – Inputs (QoQ) (3Q)
-1.5%
–
-1.0%
21:45
NZD
PPI – Outputs (QoQ) (3Q)
-1.1%
–
-0.5%
23:50
JPY
Merch Trade Balance Total (¥) (OCT)
-710.0B
-1027.0B
-960.6B
23:50
JPY
Adj Merch Trade Balance (¥) (OCT)
-977.5B
-1100.0B
-1067.7B
23:50
JPY
Merch Trade Exports (YoY) (OCT)
9.6%
4.5%
6.9%
23:50
JPY
Merch Trade Imports (YoY) (OCT)
2.7%
3.4%
6.2%
0:30
AUD
RBA FX Transactions – Market (A$) (OCT)
389M
–
910M
0:30
AUD
RBA FX Transactions – Gov’t (A$) (OCT)
-487M
–
-1017M
0:30
AUD
RBA FX Transactions – Other (A$) (OCT)
114M
–
115M
1:35
JPY
Markit/JMMA Mfg PMI (NOV P)
52.1
52.7
52.4
1:45
CNY
HSBC Mfg PMI (NOV P)
50.0
50.2
50.4
5:00
JPY
Supermarket Sales (YoY) (OCT)
-1.9%
–
-1.0%
6:00
JPY
Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (OCT F)
30.8%
–
31.2%
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP
PREV
IMPACT
7:00
CHF
Trade Balance (SFr) (OCT)
2.57B
2.49B
Medium
7:00
CHF
Exports (MoM) (OCT)
–
-3.3%
Low
7:00
CHF
Imports (MoM) (OCT)
–
-7.4%
Low
7:00
JPY
Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (OCT)
–
-1.3%
Low
7:00
EUR
German Producer Prices (MoM) (OCT)
-0.2%
0.0%
Low
7:00
EUR
German Producer Prices (YoY) (OCT)
-1.0%
-1.0%
Low
8:00
EUR
Markit France Mfg PMI (NOV P)
48.8
48.5
Medium
8:00
EUR
Markit France Services PMI (NOV P)
48.5
48.3
Medium
8:00
EUR
Markit France Composite PMI (NOV P)
48.7
48.2
Medium
8:30
EUR
Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (NOV P)
54.0
53.9
High
8:30
EUR
Markit Germany Services PMI (NOV P)
54.5
54.4
High
8:30
EUR
Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (NOV P)
51.5
51.4
High
9:00
EUR
Markit Eurozone Services PMI (NOV P)
52.4
52.3
High
9:00
EUR
Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (NOV P)
52.3
52.1
High
9:00
EUR
Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (NOV P)
50.8
50.6
High
9:30
GBP
Retail Sales Incl. Auto (MoM) (OCT)
0.3%
-0.3%
Medium
9:30
GBP
Retail Sales Incl. Auto (YoY) (OCT)
3.8%
2.7%
Medium
9:30
GBP
Retail Sales Ex Auto (MoM) (OCT)
0.3%
-0.3%
Medium
9:30
GBP
Retail Sales Ex Auto(YoY) (OCT)
4.2%
3.1%
Medium
11:00
GBP
CBI Trends Total Orders (NOV)
-5
-6
Low
11:00
GBP
CBI Trends Selling Prices (NOV)
-5
-3
Low
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EURUSD
1.2382
1.2469
1.2511
1.2556
1.2598
1.2643
1.2730
GBPUSD
1.5402
1.5533
1.5608
1.5664
1.5739
1.5795
1.5926
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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