Euro at Risk as Greece Jitters Return, US Dollar May Rise on Fed-Speak

Talking Points:

Euro Vulnerable to Deeper Losses as “Grexit” Worries Emerge Once Again
US Dollar May Rise if Hawkish Fed-Speak Boosts Interest Rate Hike Outlook
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The US Dollar underperformed to start the trading week, falling as much as 0.3 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move appeared corrective after the benchmark unit soared to the highest level in 11 years last week in the aftermath of February’s payrolls data. The Euro led the way higher against the greenback having been the hardest-hit on Friday.

The single currency may swiftly come under renewed selling pressure however as Greece returns to the spotlight. Eurozone finance ministers are due to meet in Brussels to discuss the beleaguered country’s funding after a list of reforms proposed by Athens in exchange for bailout cash was rejected. Signs of renewed deadlock following the sit-down may reboot “Grexit” fears, rekindling Euro selling pressure.

“Fed-speak” comes into focus later in the day, with the President of the US central bank’s Cleveland branch Loretta Mester due to discuss the outlook for the economy and monetary policy. While not currently on the FOMC, Mester was a voter in 2014 and so seems likely to be well-versed in the latest thinking on the rate-settingcommittee. She is also firmly on the hawkish side of the spectrum, meaning her comments may reboot the USD advance if they portend a sooner start to stimulus withdrawal.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

2:51

CNY

Trade Balance (FEB)

$60.62B

$6.00B

$60.03B

2:51

CNY

Imports (YoY) (FEB)

-20.5%

-10.0%

-19.7%

2:51

CNY

Exports (YoY) (FEB)

48.3%

14.0%

-3.2%

21:45

NZD

Manufacturing Activity (QoQ) (4Q)

-0.7%

-1.1%

21:45

NZD

Manufacturing Activity Volume (QoQ) (4Q)

0.9%

0.5%

23:50

JPY

GDP (QoQ) (4Q F)

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

23:50

JPY

GDP Annualized (QoQ) (4Q F)

1.5%

2.2%

2.2%

23:50

JPY

Nominal GDP (QoQ) (4Q F)

1.0%

1.1%

1.1%

23:50

JPY

GDP Deflator (YoY) (4Q F)

2.4%

2.3%

2.3%

23:50

JPY

GDP Private Consumption (QoQ) (4Q F)

0.5%

0.3%

0.3%

23:50

JPY

GDP Business Spending (QoQ) (4Q F)

-0.1%

0.2%

0.1%

23:50

JPY

Current Account Total (¥) (JAN)

61.4B

270.4B

187.2B

23:50

JPY

Adjusted Current Account Total (¥) (JAN)

1058.1B

117.6B

852.8B

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance – BOP Basis (¥) (JAN)

-864.2B

-936.0B

-395.6B

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (FEB)

2.5%

2.5%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (FEB)

2.6%

2.6%

2.6%

0:30

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (FEB)

0.9%

1.2%

4:30

JPY

Bankruptcies (YoY) (FEB)

-11.50%

-16.55%

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (FEB)

53.2

50.4

50.0

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Current (FEB)

50.1

46.5

45.6

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German Trade Balance (€) (JAN)

15.9B (A)

18.9B

Low

7:00

EUR

German Current Account (€) (JAN)

16.8B (A)

25.6B

Low

7:00

EUR

German Imports s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

-0.3% (A)

-0.7%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Exports s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

-2.1% (A)

2.8%

Low

8:00

CHF

SNB Sight Deposits

Low

8:30

EUR

Eurozone FinMins Meet in Brussels

High

9:30

EUR

Eurozone Sentix Investor Conf (MAR)

18.6 (A)

12.4

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0520

1.0713

1.0778

1.0906

1.0971

1.1099

1.1292

GBPUSD

1.4660

1.4884

1.4961

1.5108

1.5185

1.5332

1.5556

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Source: Daily fx