Talking Points
Weekly Opening Range taking shape below key resistance
Break to verify/invalidate long-bias
Event Risk on Tap ThisWeek
EUR/AUD Daily
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
EURAUD completes 100% extension off the lows into key resistance 1.4162/75
Key near-term support 1.4000/40 –bullish invalidation
Break below targets objectives into lower median-line support (dashed blue)
Topside breach targets 1.4235 / ML resistance off the February high
Daily RSI holding sub-50 (bearish)- Pending support trigger in play
Event Risk Ahead: Australia Building Approvals tonight, AU Trade Balance& China PMI Tomorrow & NFPs on Friday
EUR/AUD 30min
Notes:The weekly opening range is taking shape just below near-term resistance with the 1.4040-1.4175 region in focus. Near-term support & bearish invalidation extends into the 1.40-figure with a break below confirming a near-term reversal lower in the pair targeting support objectives into the lower median-line parallel, currently just above the 1.39-handle.
Bottom line: we’re at risk for a turn lower near-term with a break sub-1.4040 needed to shift our scalp bias back to the short-side. Interim resistance stands at 1.4105 backed by at 1.4165/75 (near-term bearish invalidation). A breach above this region targets 1.4235 / the longer dated upper MLP just shy of 1.43 (depending on time). Caution is warranted heading into the Chinese PMI numbers with the print likely to fuel added volatility in Aussie crosses.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Relevant Data Releases
Other Setups in Play:
Scalp Webinar: USD Defends Support Slope- Bulls at Risk Ahead of NFP
AUDUSD Reversal Scalp- Shorts Favored Sub 7850
EURJPY Long Scalps at Risk Below FOMC High- Interim Support 130.60
Webinar: Scalps Favor Dollar Correction- EUR/USD Eyes FOMC Highs
Bullish USD Outlook Mired Post FOMC- JPY, GBP & Gold in Focus
—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
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Source: Daily fx