THE TAKEAWAY: Despite lower Italian and Spanish bond yields and the diminished risk of Greece leaving the Euro-Zone in the near-term, there is clear evidence that doing “whatever it takes” to save the Euro hasn’t done much to solve the continent’s labor crisis
Happy anniversary, Euro.
The pundits are out in full force today celebrating the one-year anniversary of European Central Bank Mario Draghi’s promise that the ECB would do “whatever it takes” to save the Euro. Certainly, when looking in the rearview mirror, from an FX rates perspective, all is well: the EURUSD has climbed from a yearly low of $1.2041 on July 24, 2012 to above 1.3200 today, an impressive +10% gain.
Similarly, sky rocketing Italian and Spanish bond yields – the main reason for President Draghi’s proclamation – have come down sharply, putting a lid on concerns for dissolution of the Euro-Zone.
In reality, because the Euro-Zone’s problems have moved beyond financial markets and into the real economies, here is what President Draghi’s “whatever it takes” really achieved: record high Unemployment Rates.
Since the end of the 3Q’12 to the end of the 2Q’13, here’s what has changed in the Euro-Zone’s closely-watched labor markets:
– Euro-Zone: 11.5% to 12.1%
– Spain: 25.5% to 26.5%
– Greece: 24.6% to 27.4%
– Italy: 10.8% to 11.9%
– Portugal: 15.8% to 17.7%
When all is said and done, if President Draghi’s “whatever it takes” doesn’t address the underlying economic issues that are worsening the Euro-Zone’s labor market crisis, then there is little reason to believe that the Euro’s problems have gone away at all.
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst
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