Talking Points:
Dollar: The Fed’s Favored Inflation Reading Due
British Pound at Risk of Retreat if BoE Makes Moves on Financial Stability
Yen Crosses Weigh CPI Impact on QE Hopes Versus Influence of Risk Trends
Dollar: The Fed’s Favored Inflation Reading Due
As quickly as the Dollar’s gains were tallied, they were quickly retraced this past session. Without a convincing argument for capital to move to the US and its currency – say an appeal for safety or a competitive yield outlook – a volatile move in the greenback’s favor will be quickly smothered. From the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar), the 0.2 percent retreat virtually offset Tuesday’s rally before it could gain traction for a lasting move. In this retreat, the benchmark lost ground against all but the British Pound – the session’s worst performer. Notably, both EURUSD and USDJPY put in noteworthy anti-dollar breaks; though they were more technical than systemic. EURUSD’s move above 1.3625 and USDJPY’s drop below 101.75 lost momentum almost immediately after the breaks were achieved. Though the market is reticent about feeding a strong dollar bull run, it is proving equally dubious of a lasting selloff.
From the newswires this past session, the focus was on high-profile scheduled event risk. Though it was a second revision – most of the market-moving impact for updated indicator series is spent on the initial release – the 1Q GDP update generated extravagant headlines. The 2.9 percent annualized contraction for the world’s largest economy was materially worse than the 1.0 percent slump initially reported and well below the 1.8 percent drop expected of the update. Yet, the markets have been pacified on this update thanks to Fed officials amongst others. Constant reassurance that this was a weather-related one-off for the opening quarter, confidence of a quick rebound has already taken root.
In the forthcoming session, the focus will shift away from the theme of impotent growth interests to far more capable interest rate speculation. Two Fed officials are set to speak on economic activity and monetary policy – Lacker and Bullard respectively – but there will be something more tangible for yield interests to gain traction on. At the press conference that followed the FOMC rate decision last week, Fed Chairwoman Yellen reminded the market that the central bank’s preferred inflation measure is the PCE – not the CPI. This was in response to a question of whether the bank was afraid of being behind the ball. The headline PCE reading is expected to tick up to a 1.8 percent pace while the core reading is seen rising to 1.5 percent. If the jump is bigger, speculative of a more timely rate hike will lift the dollar.
British Pound at Risk of Retreat if BoE Makes Moves on Financial Stability
Testimony from Bank of England officials earlier this week (Tuesday) sabotaged the GBPUSD’s rally and pulled the pair back below 1.7000. The dovish and cautious view issued up by the policymakers at that event deflated the driver that has contributed the most to the sterling’s rally over the past 12 months: rate expectations. We will have a ‘round 2’ on this theme in the upcoming session. The BoE is set to release its Financial Stability Report with recommendations and a speech from Governor Carney accompanying the update. Recently central bank and government have voiced concern of a housing market bubble. If they move to temper this risk, it could deflate early rate hike hopes.
Yen Crosses Weigh CPI Impact on QE Hopes Versus Influence of Risk Trends
How susceptible are markets to changes in speculation over the Bank of Japan’s QE plans? Furthermore, how much impact would a shift have on the yen itself? It is very difficult to muster a meaningful change in the forecast for the central bank to maintain course on its open-ended QQE program thanks to officials’ repeated efforts to play down upgrade hopes (something that could have driven the yen crosses even higher). If there is any hope of a change in this status quo stance, it will have to come from the data on deck: Japanese CPI and employment.
Euro Break High Against Dollar Carries Limited Fundamental Banking
The Euro boldly attempted to turn the tide on its past seven week bear trend versus the US Dollar. Yet, that effort fell apart rather quickly after making a technical push above 1.3625 as the shared currency’s fundamental backdrop has bulls balking. Event risk from the Eurozone this past session was tepid, so there was little to alter the course on the yield drain for the region. One material positive is the drop in short-term periphery (Spain, Italy, etc) sovereign yields as a sign of risk appetite. However, this is a mature capital flow. The Euro needs more to continue higher.
Chinese Yuan Struggles to Gain as Business Confidence Cools and Markets Open
We are receiving mixed signals on China – both through fundamentals and markets. This past session a PBoC survey reported local banker confidence dropped sharply in 2Q. Alternatively, the rate of growth in local debt reportedly cooled which takes the edge off a bubble. From the market’s the Renminbi (Yuan) has turned to congestion while the iShares China ETF has dropped over 4 percent this past week.
Emerging Markets Capital Markets Drop, Currencies Fare Better
The MSCI Emerging Market ETF gapped down Wednesday to a three-week low. The move threatens to turn a multi-month bull trend for the capital market measure for the risky segment, but FX doesn’t seem to show the same level of risk. The EM currencies were split this past session with the more liquid BRIC units extending general bull trends. High yield appetite is being easily fed by moderate liquidity.
Gold: Activity Doldrums Can Anchor Metal as Much as Financial Assets
We know what impact low activity has on most financial assets: smaller swings see speculative appetites dry up. That same reality seems to be infecting gold. Volume in both metal futures and ETFs are trending lower as traders accept the lethargy of quiet market conditions. This can be a killer for assets that require speculative demand to feed a trend. And, given the lack of inflation and anti-currency sentiment, it is hitting gold.
**Bring the economic calendar to your charts with the DailyFX News App.
ECONOMIC DATA
GMT
Currency
Release
Survey
Previous
Comments
1:30
AUD
Job Vacancies (MAY)
2.6%
A second tier employment report
6:45
EUR
French Consumer Confidence (JUN)
85
85
Germany sentiment recently jumped
12:30
CAD
Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (APR)
3.1%
An upstream inflation + spending gauge
12:30
USD
Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 21)
310K
312K
A bigger trend of improved labor market trend carries little immediate impact on rate speculation
12:30
USD
Continuing Claims (JUN 14)
2570K
2561K
12:30
USD
Personal Income (MAY)
0.4%
0.3%
This data is a critical contribution to consumer spending – the US’ largest GDP component
12:30
USD
Personal Spending (MAY)
0.4%
-0.1%
12:30
USD
PCE Deflator (MoM) (MAY)
0.3%
0.2%
Most market participants look to the CPI to establish their Fed rate hike speculation. However, the central bank says its preferred measure is the PCE Deflator. This indicator can materially alter rate and dollar bearings
12:30
USD
PCE Deflator (YoY) (MAY)
1.8%
1.6%
12:30
USD
Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (MAY)
0.2%
0.2%
12:30
USD
Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (MAY)
1.6%
1.4%
16:00
EUR
French Total Jobseekers (MAY)
3370.0k
3364.1k
Already pushing a record high, employment demand is seen rising even further in May
16:00
EUR
French Total Jobseekers Change (MAY)
6
14.8
22:45
NZD
Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (MAY)
250M
534M
Trade is a key growth measure for New Zealand but most will evaluate this for its impact on the RBNZ’s next move
22:45
NZD
Exports (New Zealand dollars) (MAY)
4.50B
4.50B
22:45
NZD
Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars) (MAY)
1350M
1191M
23:01
GBP
Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (JUN)
0.5%
Explosive housing growth was mentioned as one of the greatest threats to the UK by the Government
23:01
GBP
Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (JUN)
6.1%
23:05
GBP
GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JUN)
2
0
Would be first positive read in 9 years
23:30
JPY
National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY)
3.7%
3.4%
With a 2 percent inflation target through the medium-term, the BoJ sees its measures are on track. However, is this price pressure that is sticky? If inflation pressures ease, hopes for a QQE upgrade will grow
23:30
JPY
National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (MAY)
3.4%
3.2%
23:30
JPY
National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (MAY)
2.2%
2.3%
23:30
JPY
Tokyo CPI (YoY) (JUN)
3.1%
3.1%
23:30
JPY
Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JUN)
2.8%
2.8%
23:30
JPY
Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JUN)
1.9%
1.9%
23:30
JPY
Jobless Rate (MAY)
3.6%
3.6%
Japanese Prime Minister Abe has said the economy will maintain its strength despite the tax hike – this data will signal whether he is correct
23:30
JPY
Job-To-Applicant Ratio (MAY)
1.08
1.08
23:30
JPY
Household Spending (YoY) (MAY)
-2.1%
-4.6%
23:50
JPY
Retail Trade (YoY) (MAY)
-1.9%
-4.4%
23:50
JPY
Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (MAY)
2.8%
-13.7%
23:50
JPY
Large Retailers’ Sales (MAY)
-2.5%
-6.8%
GMT
Currency
Upcoming Events & Speeches
6:00
EUR
Bundesbank’s Weidmann Briefs Lawmakers in Closed Session
9:30
GBP
BoE Governor Mark Carney Delivers Financial Stability Review
12:30
USD
Fed’s Jeffrey Lacker Speaks on U.S. Economy
17:05
USD
Fed’s James Bullard Speaks on Monetary Policy
UK
BOE FPC Publishes Recommendations
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal
To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table
CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMT
SCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT
Currency
USD/MXN
USD/TRY
USD/ZAR
USD/HKD
USD/SGD
Currency
USD/SEK
USD/DKK
USD/NOK
Resist 2
13.5800
2.3800
12.7000
7.8165
1.3650
Resist 2
7.5800
5.8950
6.5135
Resist 1
13.1500
2.3000
11.8750
7.8075
1.3250
Resist 1
6.8155
5.8475
6.2660
Spot
13.0103
2.1316
10.5846
7.7517
1.2488
Spot
6.7368
5.4694
6.1334
Support 1
12.8350
2.0700
10.2500
7.7490
1.2000
Support 1
6.0800
5.3350
5.7450
Support 2
12.6000
1.7500
9.3700
7.7450
1.1800
Support 2
5.8085
5.2715
5.5655
INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT
CCY
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
EUR/JPY
Gold
Res 3
1.3703
1.7085
102.38
0.8980
1.0772
0.9466
0.8831
139.58
1336.01
Res 2
1.3685
1.7061
102.23
0.8967
1.0759
0.9450
0.8815
139.36
1331.55
Res 1
1.3667
1.7038
102.07
0.8954
1.0746
0.9434
0.8798
139.14
1327.09
Spot
1.3631
1.6991
101.77
0.8927
1.0721
0.9402
0.8765
138.71
1318.18
Supp 1
1.3595
1.6944
101.47
0.8900
1.0696
0.9370
0.8732
138.28
1309.27
Supp 2
1.3577
1.6921
101.31
0.8887
1.0683
0.9354
0.8715
138.06
1304.81
Supp 3
1.3559
1.6897
101.16
0.8874
1.0670
0.9338
0.8699
137.84
1300.35
v
— Written by: John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact John, email jkicklighter@dailyfx.com. Follow me on twitter at http://www.twitter.com/JohnKicklighter
Sign up for John’s email distribution list, here.
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.
Source: Daily fx