Talking Points:
Dollar Advances Across the Board as Sentiment Breaks, CPI Steady
Euro Worst Performing Major Braces for Growth Update
British Pound Mixed as Tone of BoE Minutes Softens
Dollar Advances Across the Board as Sentiment Breaks, CPI Steady
A fever of risk appetite in the equities market broke this past session and September inflation statistics for the US printed a steady – if below target – pace. How did the Dollar respond? It climbed further. The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) rose a second consecutive day, but it was its breadth rather than pace that impressed. Looking across the ‘majors’, the Greenback rose against all of its most liquid pairings. Once again, the fundamental motivations were of questionable provenance. The first slip for the S&P 500 in five trading days – especially after the biggest single day rally in 12 months – was a high profile development for those trading the safe haven currency. However, the Dollar experienced limited connection to the initial sentiment swell; so it is fitting that it would be little motivated by the moderation. Through the equities rally, the appetite for risk never hit a cadence to buoy all markets (suggesting it wasn’t a definitive move), so its correction inherently fall short on the needed intensity of risk aversion to truly leverage the extreme version of safe haven the currency represents.
Comparatively, the changing winds of Fed rate forecasts have proven a more active fuel for the Dollar. That made this past session’s September CPI reading an important release. Considering the market has significantly downgraded its forecast for the timing of the first FOMC rate forecast and the subsequent pace, there was a skew for how much impact the data would likely have under different scenarios. The 1.7 percent pace of price growth in headline and core price measures steadied from a cooling trend – though it does so below the central bank’s medium-term target. Downplaying the argument that this has nevertheless revived rate hopes; medium-term Treasury yields, Eurodollar futures and Fed Fund futures were all little moved on the day. Looking for a catalyst on the relative growth or relative interest rate front for the Dollar requires heavy-impact data. Today’s Chicago Fed National Activity Index and factory PMI is limited compared to next week’s FOMC decision and 3Q GDP.
Euro Worst Performing Major Braces for Growth Update
Scheduled event risk was limited once against for the Euro this past session. A multi-year high in Irish housing inflation and a strong 30-year German bond auction don’t touch upon the factors that are most interesting/concerning to FX traders. What was interesting through this past session were reports of a third straight day of asset purchases by the ECB. Though they reportedly bought Spanish covered bonds, there wasn’t a particularly remarkable move in the sovereign yields or the country’s capital market benchmarks. We will reportedly learn how much was purchased through this week next Monday. Meanwhile, the region’s economic and financial health are under the microscope. The ECB cautioned against positioning on conjecture over possible bank failures in the stress test results due Sunday, but the markets know the stakes. On the economic front, today’s docket offers up the Eurozone October PMI figures – the best leading data to GDP.
British Pound Mixed as Tone of BoE Minutes Softens
There is still a very vocal minority in the Monetary Policy Committee of the BoE. According to the minutes of the central bank’s last meeting – released this past session – members Weale and McCafferty once again voted for a 25 bp hike to the benchmark rate. They were overruled 7-2. Yet, despite the persistence of the group’s hawks, the ‘majority’ seems to be growing increasingly wary of their optimism. Remarks of evidence showing a slowing pace of growth and weak wage pressures builds on last week’s five-year low CPI reading. That same majority would also voice concern that a rate hike could leave the country vulnerable to shocks. Gilts and swaps were little changed for the day, but impliedrates are pushing back the time frame for the first hike. It now stands closer to mid-2015.
Japanese Yen: Official Says a Currency Decline is Good if Gradual
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda remarked the other day that the Japanese Yen was rising due to a bout of international risk aversion amid economic turmoil. This past session Vice Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura stated that a gradual drop in the currency was “good for Japan”. The stream of commentary from policymakers (the central bank and government) has grown steady. Yet, will it be effective? Effective ‘jawboning’ relies on either a favor market (already moves your way) or thinly veiled threats to alter stimulus. They currently have neither.
New Zealand Dollar More Responsive to its CPI than Aussie
Where the Australian Dollar was virtually unmoved by its 3Q CPI reading, New Zealand produced a substantial decline after its own inflation report. The difference is that the Kiwi is already suffering a tumble for the loss of its high profile yield forecast just a few months ago, and a curb of future hikes carries weight here. The 1.0 percent annual CPI reading is only a 5 quarter low, but far from the 2-3 percent target.
Emerging Market Capital Markets and Currencies Drop
Though FX was little effected by the shift in sentiment this past session, the Emerging Markets felt the pressure. The MSCI EM ETF fell for the first time in four days (0.7 percent). Meanwhile, the currency crosses were broadly read versus the US Dollar. Russia’s Economy Minister Ulyukayev offered a growth update that suggested the country’s economy stalled in September. The Ruble dropped 1.1 percent to a record low.
Gold Recovery Falling Far Short in Silver Counterpart
From its test of a multi-year low earlier this month, gold has rallied as much as 6.1 percent. As tepid as the market’s speculative interest in the move has been in ETF and derivatives demand, the price was nevertheless advancing. For silver – gold’s cheaper and sometimes speculative equivalent – the confidence has been far slower to find footing. The Gold-Silver ratio hit its highest level since May 2009 today.
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ECONOMIC DATA
GMT
Currency
Release
Survey
Previous
Comments
0:30
AUD
NAB Business Confidence (3Q)
6
Though easing, not reflecting fears of broader slowdown just yet
1:35
JPY
Markit/JMMA PMI Manufacturing (OCT P)
52.0
51.7
Steady climb has developed 9 mths
1:45
CNY
HSBC PMI Manufacturing (OCT P)
50.2
50.2
Impact sapped after GDP
6:45
EUR
French Business Confidence Indicator (OCT)
95
96
France is following in the steps of Italy as fears of a stalled economy will find measure in this data
6:45
EUR
French Business Confidence (OCT)
91
91
7:00
EUR
French Markit PMI Composite (OCT P)
48.7
48.4
7:30
EUR
German Markit PMI Manufacturing (OCT P)
49.5
49.9
The EZ and Germany PMIs are good, leading measures of the Euro-area’s economic health; and forecasts are unfavorable
7:30
EUR
German Markit PMI Composite (OCT P)
53.6
54.1
8:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Markit PMI Manufacturing (OCT P)
49.9
50.3
8:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Markit PMI Composite (OCT P)
51.5
52.0
8:30
GBP
Retail Sales ex Auto (MoM) (SEP)
0.0%
0.2%
Prone to wild changes and significant breaks from consensus, this is not a market-moving data
8:30
GBP
Retail Sales ex Auto (YoY) (SEP)
3.4%
4.5%
8:30
GBP
Retail Sales inc Auto (MoM) (SEP)
-0.1%
0.4%
8:30
GBP
BBA Loans for House Purchase (SEP)
41450
41588
Has moderated most of 2014
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Government Debt (2Q)
An economic slowdown is expected to slow the reduction in deficits
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Government Deficit (2Q)
10:00
GBP
CBI Trends Total Orders (OCT)
-3
-4
Sentiment in 2Q dropped from its highest level in 4 decades
10:00
GBP
CBI Business Optimism (OCT)
15
19
12:30
USD
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (SEP)
-0.21
Holds a strong long-run correlation to quarterly GDP
12:30
USD
Initial Jobless Claims (OCT 18)
264K
The jobless claims-to-work age population is at decades lows
12:30
USD
Continuing Claims (OCT 11)
2389K
13:00
USD
House Price Index (MoM) (AUG)
0.4%
0.1%
Concern of a plateau rising at Fed
13:45
USD
Markit PMI Manufacturing (OCT P)
57.3
57.5
Has deviated from ISM recently
14:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (OCT A)
-12.0
-11.4
Expected to drop a fifth month
14:00
USD
Leading Indicators (SEP)
0.7%
0.2%
Previous was lowest since January
21:45
NZD
Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (SEP)
-625M
-472M
A weakened trade backdrop would further curb fading rate hopes
21:45
NZD
Exports (New Zealand dollars) (SEP)
3.50B
3.52B
GMT
Currency
Upcoming Events & Speeches
–
EUR
EU Leaders Hold Summit (Oct 23-24)
17:00
USD
US to Sell $7 Bln in 30-Year TIPS (Inflation-Adjusted Treasuries)
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal
To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table
CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMT
SCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT
Currency
USD/MXN
USD/TRY
USD/ZAR
USD/HKD
USD/SGD
Currency
USD/SEK
USD/DKK
USD/NOK
Resist 2
14.0100
2.3800
12.7000
7.8165
1.3650
Resist 2
7.5800
5.8950
7.2900
Resist 1
13.5800
2.3000
11.8750
7.8075
1.3250
Resist 1
7.3285
5.8475
6.7400
Spot
13.5441
2.2620
11.1073
7.7574
1.2733
Spot
7.1620
5.8173
6.5641
Support 1
13.0300
2.0700
10.2500
7.7490
1.2000
Support 1
6.7750
5.3350
6.3145
Support 2
12.8350
1.7500
9.3700
7.7450
1.1800
Support 2
6.0800
5.2715
6.1300
INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT
CCY
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
EUR/JPY
Gold
Res 3
1.2902
1.6188
107.33
0.9518
1.1351
0.8865
0.8033
137.37
1263.72
Res 2
1.2877
1.6159
107.09
0.9497
1.1327
0.8842
0.8009
137.06
1257.34
Res 1
1.2851
1.6131
106.85
0.9475
1.1304
0.8818
0.7986
136.76
1250.96
Spot
1.2800
1.6073
106.37
0.9433
1.1258
0.8771
0.7939
136.15
1238.21
Supp 1
1.2749
1.6015
105.89
0.9391
1.1212
0.8724
0.7892
135.54
1225.46
Supp 2
1.2723
1.5987
105.65
0.9369
1.1189
0.8700
0.7869
135.24
1219.08
Supp 3
1.2698
1.5958
105.41
0.9348
1.1165
0.8677
0.7845
134.93
1212.70
v
— Written by: John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact John, email jkicklighter@dailyfx.com. Follow me on twitter at http://www.twitter.com/JohnKicklighter
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Source: Daily fx