CHF: SNB To Follow A Reactive Policy Vis-a-vis ECB: Where To Target? – Goldman Sachs

We expect the SNB to follow a reactive policy vis-à-vis the ECB, implying that it will likely try to match further potential easing steps by the ECB.

The current low level of policy rates somewhat limits its room to manoeuvre, but more aggressive moves from the ECB would likely force the SNB to respond.

We therefore forecast EUR/CHF to be essentially flat on a 12-month horizon.

We maintain our forecast for EUR/CHF at 1.09, 1.09 and 1.10 in 3, 6 and 12 months, This implies USD/CHF at 1.01, 1.05 and 1.10.

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