Talking Points:
– USDOLLAR Index triangle breakout leads to fresh yearly highs.
– Driven by weakness in commodity currencies, Euro.
– See the April forex seasonality report.
The US Dollar continues to break from its shackles that are the QE era seasonals, hitting fresh yearly highs in the month that’s been the worst trading period for the greenback over the past six-years. The symmetrical triangle that we’ve been watching in the USDOLLAR Index since last Monday has indeed resolved itself higher, achieving initial topside targets while setting the table for further gains.
The difference in the USDOLLAR’s rally at the start of this week is involvement: last week, USD-pairs that gained were solely of the European variety; gains are more widespread with AUDUSD and USDJPY acting as driving factors now too.
EURUSD is likely to be the most volatile component of the index over the coming days, even with a blasé ECB meeting set for Wednesday. While the meeting is nothing more than a checkpoint for recent developments after the first month of the new QE program, there is a strong chance that policymakers offer an optimistic assessment of incoming data in the Euro-Zone. Accordingly, in a market that remains heavily net-short Euro (215.3K net-short contracts among speculators for the week ended April 7), this sentiment could produce a mild rebound in the EUR-crosses. However, in context of the USDOLLAR Index breakout, this would present a ‘buy-the-dip’ opportunity (or a ‘sell-the-rally’ mindset in EURUSD).
See the above video for technical considerations in EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, and the broader USDOLLAR Index.
Read more: Any Euro Rally on ECB Economic Optimism to Prove Short-Lived
— Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
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Source: Daily fx