Bank of Canada to be on hold today (Wed). Before the ECB on Thursday and the Fed and BoE next week, the Bank of Canada will have a say. Growth in Q3 was a bit stronger than the BoC expected (3.5 percent vs. 3.2 percent expected by the BoC), and the risks to Q4 also now look to be on the upside (2.0 – 2.5 percent vs. 1.5 percent) (Exhibit 1), even as exports have been lackluster (Exhibit 2).
Taken together with the recent OPEC decision, the BoC should be firmly on hold this week. Governor Poloz recently said a rate cut would take an “accumulation of evidence” that growth is falling short of its forecast. That seems unlikely to be their assessment not only this week, but also by the January forecast round. This week is a non-MPR meeting, meaning there will be no press conference and no formal forecast update – just a statement at 10am ET.
Copyright © 2016 Goldman Sachs, eFXnews™Original Article
