Talking Points:
– USDOLLAR Fails to Preserves Bullish Momentum; Lower High in Place?
– Australian Dollar Holds Key Support Ahead of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes
Index
Last
High
Low
Daily Change (%)
Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index
10586.11
10615.61
10570.48
-0.13
87.12%
USDOLLAR Daily
Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Threatens Trendline Support; Carves Lower High in November?
Relative Strength Index Fails to Retain Bullish Momentum
Interim Resistance: 10,658 (61.8 extension)- Former Support
Interim Support: 10,561 (100.0 expansion)- Former Resistance
Release
GMT
Expected
Actual
Import Price Index MoM (Oct)
13:30
-0.4%
-0.7%
Import Price Index YoY (Oct)
13:30
-1.6%
2.0%
Empire Manufacturing (Nov)
13:30
5.00
-2.21
Industrial Production MoM (Oct)
14:15
0.2%
-0.1%
Manufacturing (SIC) Production (Oct)
14:15
0.3%
0.3%
Capacity Utilization (Oct)
14:15
78.3%
78.1%
Wholesale Inventories MoM (Sep)
15:00
0.4%
0.4%
Wholesale Trade Sales MoM (Sep)
15:00
0.3%
0.6%
The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is struggling to hold its ground ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes amid the slew of dismal data crossing the wires, and the greenback appears to have carved a lower high just below former support as it threatens the upward trend carried over from the previous month.
The FOMC Minute may heavily influence the near-term outlook for dollar as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy, and the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric may highlight further weakness for the USD should the central bank talk down bets for a taper at the December 17-18 meeting.
Nevertheless, the technical outlook instills a bearish forecast for the week ahead as the Relative Strength Index fails to maintain the bullish momentum, and we may see the greenback carve out a lower low in the days ahead as the rebound from 10,354 appears to be a mere correction.
AUDUSD Daily
Maintains Downward Trending Channel; Sitting at Former Resistance/New Support
Relative Strength Index Clears Bearish Trend
Interim Resistance: 0.9770-80 (78.6 expansion)
Interim Support: 0.9250 (23.6 retracement) to 0.9290 Pivot
The dollar weakened against most of its major counterparts, led by a 0.48 percent rally in the Australian dollar, and we may see a more meaningful advance in the AUDUSD next week should the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)Minutes talk down expectations for additional rate cuts.
From a technical standpoint, the downward trending channel does highlight a bearish forecast for the AUDUSD, but the breakout in the RSI may foreshadow a bottoming process as the pair appears to be carving out a low around former resistance.
In turn, more neutral comments coming out of the RBA may serve as the fundamental catalyst to spur further advances in the AUDUSD as the central bank sticks to its wait-and-see approach.
— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
To be added to David’s e-mail distribution list, please follow this link.
Trade Alongsidethe DailyFX Team on DailyFX on Demand
Looking to use the DailyFX Trade Signals LIVE? Check out Mirror Trader.
New to FX? Watch this Video
Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFXForums
Source: Daily fx
