Talking Points:
– USDOLLAR Fails to Maintain Bullish Trend as NFP Disappoints
– British Pound Preserves Monthly Range- Higher Low in Place?
Index
Last
High
Low
Daily Change (%)
Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index
10656.95
10725.81
10638.22
-0.40
222.18%
USDOLLAR Daily
Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Close Below Trendline & Interim Support to Highlight Downside Targets
Bearish Divergence in Relative Strength Index to Provide Confirmation/Conviction
Interim Resistance: 10,753 (23.6 expansion) to 10,759 (61.8 retracement)
Interim Support: 10,657 (61.8 extension)- Closing Basis
Release
GMT
Expected
Actual
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (DEC)
13:30
197K
74K
Unemployment Rate (DEC)
13:30
7.0%
6.7%
Underemployment Rate (DEC)
13:30
—
13.1%
Change in Private Payrolls (DEC)
13:30
200K
87K
Labor Force Participation Rate (DEC)
13:30
—
62.8%
Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (DEC)
13:30
15K
9K
Change in Household Employment (DEC)
13:30
—
143
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (DEC)
13:30
0.2%
0.1%
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (DEC)
13:30
1.9%
1.8%
Average Weekly Hours All Employees (DEC)
13:30
34.5
34.4
Revision of Seasonally Adjusted Household Survey Data
13:30
Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (DEC)
13:30
—
38K
Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (NOV)
15:00
0.4%
0.5%
Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (NOV)
15:00
0.7%
1.0%
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Jan)
15:00
46.0
45.2
The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) sold off following the dismal Non-Farm Payrolls print, and the greenback may continue to give back the advance from back in October as the slowdown in job growth dampens the Fed’s scope to further reduce its asset-purchase program at the January 29 meeting.
Nevertheless, Richmond Fed President Dennis Lockhart, who votes on the FOMC in 2015, argued that the it is ‘wise not to overreact’ to one data print as he sees the committee discussing another $10B taper later this month, and the shift in the policy outlook may help to limit the downside for the greenback as the central bank retains a rather upbeat tone for the economy.
In light of recent price action, the technical outlook points to further dollar weakness in the days ahead, and the bearish divergence in the Relative Strength Index should continue to take shape as the greenback appears to have carved a lower high in January.
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GBPUSD Daily
Price & RSI Maintains Bullish Trend- Carves Higher Low Above Trendline Support
Interim Resistance: 1.6550 (78.6 expansion) to 1.6600 Pivot
Interim Support: 1.6300 Pivot to 1.6310 (50.0 expansion)
Three of the four components strengthened against the greenback, led by a 0.99 percent advance in the Australian dollar, while the British Pound bucked the trend amid the dismal developments coming out of the U.K. economy.
Nevertheless, we will maintain a bullish outlook for the GBPUSD as it appears to have carved a higher low ahead of trendline support, and the bullish trend should continue to take shape over the near-term as the Bank of England (BoE) scales back its dovish tone for monetary policy.
With BoE Governor Mark Carney scheduled to speak next week, more hawkish comments from the central bank head may eventually spur a higher high in the exchange rate, and we will maintain a ‘buy the dip’ strategy for the British Pound as the Monetary Policy Committee looks to normalize monetary policy ahead of schedule.
— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
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Source: Daily fx
