Talking Points:
Dollar Drops as Commodities Rebound and Equities Slide
Australian Dollar Hits 4 Year Low on High Volume Before RBA
Swiss Franc: EURCHF Doesn’t Rally Far After ‘No’ Vote on Gold
Dollar Drops as Commodities Rebound and Equities Slide
In a day scarred by volatility, the Dollar notably ended the day in the red. While this correction was ultimately mild – the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) was down only 0.1 percent and after setting a five-and-a-half year high in session – it is fundamentally remarkable. From the US docket and newswires there were few items to significantly undermine the currency’s appeal. A few Fed speakers (NY President William Dudley and Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer) remarked on their general optimism for local growth, downplay of dis-inflation concerns and the diminishing efficacy of future stimulus efforts. For data, the ISM manufacturing survey for November reported a stronger than expected reading and just off a three-year high. The inflation component of the indicator, however, did post its biggest drop since June 2012. This measure has a lead on the CPI report, but its composition is significantly different.
Rather than economic cues and relative monetary policy forecasts, the Dollar seems to have found its motivation this past session through its counterparts. If a single reference currency is little moved, it can be strong armed by more active peers. In particular, commodities posted remarkable rallies. Both gold and US-based WTI oil posted intraday rallies from multi-year lows. Given the Dollar is the global pricing instrument for these resources, the momentum reverberates through the FX market. The question heading forward is whether the appreciation to these key Dollar foils continues. Neither growth forecasts nor anti-currency sentiment have regained significant traction. Further, the major currencies are not moving to close the gap with the Fed’s rate forecast. In the upcoming session, we will put to the test a tentative slip in risk trends (the S&P 500 took a spill Monday) and start the engine on relative rate forecasts (with the RBA decision versus more Fed speak).
Australian Dollar Hits 4 Year Low on High Volume Before RBA
Though it managed to recover a lot of the ground it lost against the US Dollar, the Australian Dollar would still end Monday down against all counterparts, hit a four-year low against the Greenback and did so under its highest volume in 16 months. This exceptional level of volatility and indecision connects back to a number of fundamental sparks. Commodity volatility certainly contributed – the country is a well-known exporter – and the disappointing showing for China’s manufacturing PMI further cooled optimism. Expectations heading into the Aussie’s docket would also feed speculators’ uncertainty. With swaps pricing in a rate cut in 2015 and banks starting to jump on board with their forecasts, the RBA maintained a neutral tone with their rate decision this morning. Peace will be short-lived though. The 3Q GDP figure is due tomorrow.
Swiss Franc: EURCHF Doesn’t Rally Far After ‘No’ Vote on Gold
After a few weeks of anxiety for the Swiss government and central bank, Switzerland voted to reject (77-23) a referendum that would have forced the SNB to increase gold holdings to 20 percent of reserves and future divestment of any metal purchased. There is certainly a surprise ‘relief’ aspect to this event risk. Yet, as we can see from EURCHF, that respite offers limited breathing room from the SNB’s imposed 1.2000-floor. That is because the larger issue was not the uncertainty for this vote but rather the overwhelming wave of stimulus the ECB is injecting into the system. At this pace, either the SNB introduces new policy or simply holds the general floor on EURCHF for months.
Japanese Yen Unsettled by Moody’s Unexpected Downgrade
Ratings agency’s Moody’s Investors Service unexpectedly downgraded Japan’s sovereign debt rating one step from ‘A1’ to ‘Aa3’ Monday. The reasoning behind the move is a list of the country’s most pressing issues: expected trouble in hitting deficit reduction goals; uncertainty over the effectiveness of measure meant to help growth; persistent deflation risks; and reduced debt affordability over time. Until recently, ‘bad news’ was considered a Yen cross booster as it translated to more stimulus. Now, that relationship is wavering.
US Crude Oil Reverses: Demand or Short Squeeze?
Following last week’s dramatic tumble in global oil prices following OPEC’s decision not to cut its aggregate production levels, a bounce seemed likely. The timing and severity of the move though was the question. We didn’t have to wait long as Monday would see the largest intraday bullish reversal for US-based WTI in three years – a move made on volume nearly comparable to Friday’s impressive collapse. The question now is whether this is a lasting turn or a ‘short squeeze’. Time will tell, but conviction and fundamentals don’t look very robust early on.
Emerging Market Capital Assets Sink but Russian Ruble Collapses
The ranks of ‘risk’ were offering a mixed view Monday. Developed market equities were mixed or lower, yen crosses were down and commodities were up. There was little consistency should we argue that ‘risk trends’ were in control one way or another. Emerging Markets added to the confusion with the MSCI ETF down sharply (1.7 percent) on heavy volume. On the FX side of the group, the Russian Ruble once again stood out – in a bad way. The currency dropped another 4.4 percent – the biggest drop in nearly six years to a record low.
Gold Reversal the Largest in Three Years – A Turning Point for Bulls?
Similar to oils remarkable turn Monday, gold posted an incredible recover from morning losses. At one point below $1,150, the metal went on to rally nearly $79 to its session peak and closed above $1,210. That is the biggest intraday recovery (reversal) since August 26, 2011 – around the market’s top for record highs. Should we consider this a reversal – bullish or bearish – or is this a side effect of another development (Dollar weakness, commodity short squeeze). The global stimulus argument is compelling but not new. For now, it looks more like a squeeze.
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ECONOMIC DATA
GMT
Currency
Release
Survey
Previous
Comments
23:50
JPY
Monetary Base (YoY) (NOV)
36.90%
The high growth rate in monetary base is due to the BOJ QE policy.
23:50
JPY
Monetary Base End of Period (NOV)
¥259.5T
0:00
NZD
ANZ Commodity Price (NOV)
-0.80%
Has been contracting since April 2014.
0:30
AUD
Net Exports of GDP (3Q)
0.65
-0.9
The Current Account has been in deficit this year and the current account deficit has been growing larger this year.
0:30
AUD
Current Account Balance (Australian Dollar) (3Q)
-13.5B
-13.7B
0:30
AUD
Building Approvals (MoM) (OCT)
5.00%
-11.00%
The previous month’s contraction is the biggest decline since July 2012.
0:30
AUD
Building Approvals (YoY) (OCT)
-6.00%
-13.40%
1:30
JPY
Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (OCT)
0.80%
0.70%
A measure that isn’t likely to be market moving.
3:30
AUD
Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision
2.50%
2.50%
The RBA is expected to maintain policy rate at 2.50%. Australia’s natural resource sector is experiencing a slowdown due to less demand from China, their biggest trade partner. However, the RBA has kept rates at the same level to encourage growth outside of the resource sector
9:30
GBP
Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI (NOV)
61
61.4
Has been above 50 this year.
10:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (OCT)
-0.30%
0.20%
Inflation from the producer side can impact consumer inflation. The PPI index has been showing negative readings; implying low price pressures in the Eurozone.
10:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (OCT)
-1.30%
-1.40%
14:45
USD
ISM New York (NOV)
55
54.8
A regional measure that isn’t likely to change the market’s expectation on Fed policy
15:00
USD
Construction Spending (MoM)(OCT)
0.60%
-0.40%
A volatile measure that isn’t likely to be market moving
21:45
NZD
Value of All Buildings s.a. (QoQ) (3Q)
2.60%
1.00%
A measure that isn’t likely to impact the Kiwi pairs.
22:30
AUD
AiG Performance of Service Index (NOV)
43.6
Has been declining this year
23:50
JPY
Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (OCT)
2.24%
Has been increasing this year.
GMT
Currency
Upcoming Events & Speeches
03:45
JPY
Japan to Sell 10 Year Bonds
10:10
EUR
ECB Main Refinancing Operation Result
13:10
USD
Fed’s Fisher Speaks on Panel in Washington
13:30
USD
Fed’s Yellen Gives Welcoming Remarks to Students in Washington
15:00
EUR
Germany and France Fin Min, Eco Min and CB Govs Brief
17:00
USD
Fed’s Brainard to Speak
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal
To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table
CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMT
SCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT
Currency
USD/MXN
USD/TRY
USD/ZAR
USD/HKD
USD/SGD
Currency
USD/SEK
USD/DKK
USD/NOK
Resist 2
14.0100
2.3800
12.7000
7.8165
1.3650
Resist 2
7.5800
6.1750
7.2900
Resist 1
13.6800
2.3000
11.8750
7.8075
1.3250
Resist 1
7.5000
6.0900
7.0000
Spot
13.5823
2.2315
11.1048
7.7548
1.2974
Spot
7.4186
5.9681
6.7772
Support 1
13.0300
2.0700
10.2500
7.7490
1.2000
Support 1
6.7750
5.8000
6.3145
Support 2
12.8350
1.7500
9.3700
7.7450
1.1800
Support 2
6.0800
5.7300
6.1300
INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT
CCY
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
USD/CAD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
EUR/JPY
Gold
Res 3
1.2573
1.5766
117.89
0.9723
1.1367
0.8812
0.8030
146.88
1214.79
Res 2
1.2548
1.5738
117.55
0.9700
1.1347
0.8790
0.8008
146.50
1207.54
Res 1
1.2523
1.5709
117.21
0.9677
1.1327
0.8769
0.7986
146.12
1200.28
Spot
1.2473
1.5652
116.54
0.9632
1.1286
0.8726
0.7943
145.36
1185.78
Supp 1
1.2423
1.5595
115.87
0.9587
1.1245
0.8683
0.7900
144.60
1171.28
Supp 2
1.2398
1.5566
115.53
0.9564
1.1225
0.8662
0.7878
144.22
1164.02
Supp 3
1.2373
1.5538
115.19
0.9541
1.1205
0.8640
0.7856
143.84
1156.77
v
— Written by: John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact John, email jkicklighter@dailyfx.com. Follow me on twitter at http://www.twitter.com/JohnKicklighter
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Source: Daily fx