Talking Points:
Aussie, NZ Dollars Sink as Yemen Turmoil Drives Risk Aversion
US Dollar at Risk if Fed-Speak Underpins Rate Hike Delay Bets
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The Australian and New Zealand Dollars underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.5 and 0.3 percent on average against their leading counterparts. A drop on Asian stock exchanges appeared to be the catalyst behind the slide in the sentiment-linked currencies.
The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index fell more than 1 percent as crude oil surged amid supply disruption fears. The move followed reports that Saudi Arabia began military operations in Yemen. The country sits on the Gulf of Aden, a key transit hub for petroleum from the Persian Gulf.
A quiet economic calendar in European trading hours will probably allow sentiment trends to remain in the driver’s seat. S&P 500 index futures are trading relatively flat in late Asian hours however, hinting that risk aversion may not necessarily carry forward into the session ahead.
Later in the day, “Fed-speak” returns to the spotlight.Comments from James Bullard and Dennis Lockhart, Presidents of the US central bank’s St Louis and Atlanta branches respectively, are on tap. The latter is a voting member of the rate-setting FOMC committee this year.
Traders pushed out the likely timeline for the first post-QE rate interest hike after last week’s FOMC meeting, with Fed Funds futures now pointing to an increase in September (versus the June/July consensus prevailing ahead of the Fed announcement). Rhetoric supporting thisshift may weigh on the US Dollar.
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Asia Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
No Data
European Session
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP
PREV
IMPACT
7:00
EUR
German GfK Consumer Conf (APR)
9.8
9.7
Low
7:45
EUR
French GDP (QoQ) (4Q F)
0.1%
0.1%
Medium
7:45
EUR
French GDP (YoY) (4Q F)
0.2%
0.2%
Medium
9:00
CHF
KOF Institute Spring Economic Forecast
–
–
Medium
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (FEB)
4.3%
4.1%
Low
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (3m Avg) (FEB)
4.0%
3.6%
Low
9:30
GBP
Retail Sales Incl. Auto (MoM) (FEB)
0.4%
-0.3%
Medium
9:30
GBP
Retail Sales Incl. Auto (YoY) (FEB)
4.7%
5.4%
Medium
9:30
GBP
Retail Sales Ex Auto (MoM) (FEB)
0.4%
-0.7%
Low
9:30
GBP
Retail Sales Ex Auto (YoY) (FEB)
4.2%
4.8%
Low
11:00
GBP
CBI Reported Sales (MAR)
18
1
Low
Critical Levels
CCY
Supp 3
Supp 2
Supp 1
Pivot Point
Res 1
Res 2
Res 3
EURUSD
1.0736
1.0849
1.0909
1.0962
1.1022
1.1075
1.1188
GBPUSD
1.4642
1.4765
1.4823
1.4888
1.4946
1.5011
1.5134
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Source: Daily fx