Aussie, NZ Dollars Sink as Yemen Turmoil Drives Risk Aversion

Talking Points:

Aussie, NZ Dollars Sink as Yemen Turmoil Drives Risk Aversion
US Dollar at Risk if Fed-Speak Underpins Rate Hike Delay Bets
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The Australian and New Zealand Dollars underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.5 and 0.3 percent on average against their leading counterparts. A drop on Asian stock exchanges appeared to be the catalyst behind the slide in the sentiment-linked currencies.

The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index fell more than 1 percent as crude oil surged amid supply disruption fears. The move followed reports that Saudi Arabia began military operations in Yemen. The country sits on the Gulf of Aden, a key transit hub for petroleum from the Persian Gulf.

A quiet economic calendar in European trading hours will probably allow sentiment trends to remain in the driver’s seat. S&P 500 index futures are trading relatively flat in late Asian hours however, hinting that risk aversion may not necessarily carry forward into the session ahead.

Later in the day, “Fed-speak” returns to the spotlight.Comments from James Bullard and Dennis Lockhart, Presidents of the US central bank’s St Louis and Atlanta branches respectively, are on tap. The latter is a voting member of the rate-setting FOMC committee this year.

Traders pushed out the likely timeline for the first post-QE rate interest hike after last week’s FOMC meeting, with Fed Funds futures now pointing to an increase in September (versus the June/July consensus prevailing ahead of the Fed announcement). Rhetoric supporting thisshift may weigh on the US Dollar.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

No Data

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German GfK Consumer Conf (APR)

9.8

9.7

Low

7:45

EUR

French GDP (QoQ) (4Q F)

0.1%

0.1%

Medium

7:45

EUR

French GDP (YoY) (4Q F)

0.2%

0.2%

Medium

9:00

CHF

KOF Institute Spring Economic Forecast

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (FEB)

4.3%

4.1%

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (3m Avg) (FEB)

4.0%

3.6%

Low

9:30

GBP

Retail Sales Incl. Auto (MoM) (FEB)

0.4%

-0.3%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Retail Sales Incl. Auto (YoY) (FEB)

4.7%

5.4%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Retail Sales Ex Auto (MoM) (FEB)

0.4%

-0.7%

Low

9:30

GBP

Retail Sales Ex Auto (YoY) (FEB)

4.2%

4.8%

Low

11:00

GBP

CBI Reported Sales (MAR)

18

1

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0736

1.0849

1.0909

1.0962

1.1022

1.1075

1.1188

GBPUSD

1.4642

1.4765

1.4823

1.4888

1.4946

1.5011

1.5134

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Source: Daily fx