Talking Points:
– USD/JPY Continues to Carve Higher-Lows Despite Hamada Comments.
– AUD/USD Holds Key Support Ahead of China 1Q GDP Report.
– USDOLLAR Risks Further Losses as Bearish RSI Divergence Takes Shape.
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USD/JPY
Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Even though Koichi Hamada, an adviser to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe,argues that ‘selling of the yen is coming closer to its limit,’ may continue to see range-bound prices in USD/JPY as it retains the monthly-opening range.
Beyond the bearish momentum in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) April 30 meeting may further undermine the bullish outlook for USD/JPY should Governor Haruhiko Kuroda continue to endorse a neutral tone for monetary policy.
DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows the retail FX crowd remains net-long USD/JPY, but seeing narrowing participation as open interest slips 0.2% from the previous day, with the ratio climbing to +2.50 amid a 13.2% decline in short positions.
AUD/USD
Ongoing closes above 0.7570 (50% expansion) to 0.7590 (100% expansion) may encourage a larger rebound in AUD/USD especially as the bullish RSI momentum gathers pace.
However, as China – Australia’s largest trading partner – is expected to grow at a slower pace in 2015, a dismal 1Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may heighten speculation for another rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as Governor Glenn Stevens retains a dovish outlook for monetary policy.
Need a break/close above former-support zone around 0.7720 (161.8% expansion) to 0.7740 (78.6% expansion) to favor a larger rebound in the aussie-dollar.
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Read More:
Price & Time: USD/JPY Dead Money?
COT-Euro Positioning Little Changed from Record
USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
Index
Last
High
Low
Daily Change (%)
Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index
12069.99
12142.96
12051.22
-0.45
124.10%
Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar risks a larger decline as the bearish RSI momentum takes shape; long-term outlook remains bullish as the upward trending channel from July 2014.
In light of the ongoing weakness in private-sector consumption, will continue to watch the slew of central bank rhetoric as 2015 voting-members Jeffrey Lacker, Dennis Lockhart and Stanley Fischer are scheduled to speak this week.
Despite the risk for a double-top formation, will continue to watch the string over lower-highs in the USDOLLAR, with interim support coming in around 11,997 (100% expansion) to 12,017 (50% expansion).Join DailyFX on Demand for Real-Time SSI Updates!
Release
GMT
Expected
Actual
Advance Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR)
12:30
1.1%
0.9%
Advance Retail Sales ex Auto (MoM) (MAR)
12:30
0.7%
0.4%
Advance Retail Sales ex Auto & Gas (MoM) (MAR)
12:30
0.6%
0.5%
Advance Retail Sales Control Group (MAR)
12:30
0.5%
0.3%
Producer Price Index (MoM) (MAR)
12:30
0.2%
0.2%
Producer Price Index (YoY (MAR)
12:30
-0.9%
-0.8%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) (MAR)
12:30
0.1%
0.2%
Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) (MAR)
12:30
0.9%
0.9%
Producer Price Index ex Food, Energy, Trade (MoM) (MAR)
12:30
0.1%
0.2%
Producer Price Index ex Food, Energy, Trade (YoY) (MAR)
12:30
0.8%
0.8%
NFIB Small Business Optimism (MAR)
13:00
98.0
95.2
Business Inventories (FEB)
14:00
0.2%
0.3%
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— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
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Source: Daily fx