Talking Points
AUDUSD up nearly 7.5% off 2014 low
Rally at risk below key resistance
Weekly/Monthly Opening Ranges taking shape just below
AUDUSD Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
AUDUSD Weekly/Monthly opening range taking shape below key resistance 9308/38
Near-term bias shifts lower with break below 9208/18
Subsequent support objectives 9140/47, 9080 & 9046
Breach above 9338 targets resistance at 9394 & 9522 (H&S objective)
Daily RSI holds Sub-70 suggests near-term momentum waning
Momentum support trigger pending
Event Risk Ahead- US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday
AUDUSD Scalp Chart
Notes: Since our last AUDUSD update in March, the pair has pushed higher taking out the inital topside objectives before failing just ahead of the 100% extension taken form the 2014 low at 9308. The pair has now offered a well-defined weekly opening range (9218-9303) just below key resistance with long exposure at risk below the weekly high heading into Friday’s NFP report. Although an intra-day outside reversal candle at fresh 4-month highs earlier in the week did put a bearish tone on the pair, we await a break below the weekly range low to offer further conviction that a near-term high may be in place.
Bottom line: we’ll look for a definitive break of the weekly open to validate our scalp bias with our initial focus against the 9308/38 resistance range. That said, it’s important to note that the Aussie continues to trade within the confines of an ascending channel formation dating back to the January lows and breach above this thresholds puts the topside back in play eyeing objectives up into the 9500 region. A break sub-9080 is needed to shift the broader focus back to the short side. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets
Timeframe
Level
Significance
Resistance Target 1
30min
9257
Soft Resistance / Sunday Asia High
Resistance Target 2
Daily / 30min
9303/08
100% Extension / Weekly ORH
Bearish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
9339/42
61.8% Retracement / 1.618% Extension
Break Target 1
Daily
9393
38.2% Retracement
Break Target 2
Daily / 30min
9447
Soft Resistance / Nov Swing High
Break Target 3
Daily
9522
78.6% Retracement
Bullish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
9205/19
23.6%, 50%, 61.8% Retrc(s) / 100% Ext / Wkly ORL
Break Target 1
30min
9167
100% Fib Extension
Break Target 2
Daily / 30min
9144/47
61.8% Ext / 38.2% Retrace / 200DMA (9140)
Break Target 3
30min
9110
Soft Support / Last Week’s ORH
Break Target 4
Daily / 30min
9078/80
38.2% Retracement
Break Target 5
30min
9046
2/24 High / Last Week’s Low / 61.8% Retrace
Average True Range
Daily (20)
78
Profit Targets 18-20pips
*ORH: Opening Range High
*ORL: Opening Range Low
Other Setups in Play:
GBPJPY Long Scalps Favored into April Opening Range- 172.60 in Focus
Scalps Favor Selling Rallies in EURAUD Post Head and Shoulders Break
GBPUSD Setup Targets Key Support- Scalp Bias Constructive Above 1.6469
AUDUSD Testing Key Resistance at 9150- Weekly Open in Focus
Key Reversals on USDOLLAR, Gold Post FOMC- March Range at Risk
—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
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Source: Daily fx
