AUD/USD Retail Crowd Remains Net-Short; 0.7750 in Focus

Talking Points:
– AUD/USD Retail Crowd Remains Net-Short Despite 15.6K Rise in Australia Employment.
– NZD/USD Risks Larger Rebound as RBNZ Retains Neutral Tone- Double Bottom in Place?
– USDOLLAR Approaching Channel Resistance Ahead of U.S. Retail Sales.

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AUD/USD

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Despite the limited market reaction to the 15.6K rise in Australia Employment, AUD/USD faces a risk for a larger rebound as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) snaps back from 30.
Ongoing closes above 0.7570 (50% expansion) to 0.7590 (100% expansion) to provide conviction/confirmation for a more meaningful rebound in AUD/USD; will watch former support zones around 0.7720 (1618.% expansion) to 0.07750 (23.6% expansion) for new resistance.
The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short AUD/USD since March 10, with the ratio currently holding at -1.82.

NZD/USD

NZD/USD appears to be caving a double-bottom as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lays out a more neutral tone for monetary policy.
Even though the RBNZ retains the verbal intervention on the kiwi, NZD/USD may face a larger correction as Governor Graeme Wheeler argues that New Zealand remains in a different situation to those who are cutting interest rates.
Key topside region of interest stands at former support around 0.7600 (38.2% expansion) to 0.7620 (50% expansion).

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USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):

Index

Last

High

Low

Daily Change (%)

Daily Range (% of ATR)

DJ-FXCM Dollar Index

12064.86

12122.72

12021.82

-0.34

178.45%

Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar may continue to come off of channel resistance as U.S. Retail Sales disappoints for the third-consecutive month; will the Fed drop the ‘patience’ language at the March 18 meeting?
Keeping a close eye on the RSI as it fails to push above 80 and comes off of overbought territory, but the long-term outlook remains bullish as the Fed remains well on course to normalize monetary policy in 2015.
A break/close below former resistance zone around 11,997(100% expansion) to 12,007 (50% expansion) may expose 11,864 (23.6% expansion).

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Release

GMT

Expected

Actual

Advance Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB)