AUDUSD Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
All three objectives noted in last week’s AUDUSD scalp report have now been achieved
7-days of consecutive declines for first time since December 05’- (Note: That year saw 8 days down followed by massive reversal which pared nearly the entire decline)
Daily RSI now sitting (matches) lowest level since May 2012 (right before the rally to 1.06)
Broader bias remains bearish- Risk of near-term correction has us looking higher over next day or so
Daily resistance at 9980, 1.0025 bearish invalidation point
Break below 9880 threshold looks for 2011 trendline support (currently around 9860)
Medium-term objectives at 9805 (Key Fib confluence) and 9700 (88.6% Fib retracement)
AUDUSD Scalp Chart
Scalp Notes: Bottom Line: Although our longer-term bias remains weighted to the downside, the conditions here are set for a possible relief rally which may offer more favorable short entries higher. Our immediate bias therefore shifts cautiously to the long-side above 9880. Note that a break below this level may be required to see a test of the multiyear-long trendline support dating back to the 2011 lows with a rejection here and a move back above 9880 offering further conviction on a near-term bounce. Broader bias remains bearish so long as the 1.0025 resistance threshold is respected.
*We will remain flexible with our bias with a break below the 9960-80 range eyeing subsequent support targets. It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases. Use this app to distinguish the various trade sessions.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets
Timeframe
Level
Significance
Resistance Target 1
30min
9912
1.50% Fibonacci Extension
Resistance Target 2
30min
9938
1.382% Fibonacci Extension
Resistance Target 3
Daily
9980
61.8% Retracement
Bearish Invalidation
30min / Daily
1.0025
100% Extensions
Break Target 1
30min
1.0050
Soft Resistance / Pivot
Break Target 2
30min
1.0075
78.6% Fibonacci Extension
Break Target 3
30min
1.0114
61.8% Fibonacci Extension
Break Target 4
30min
1.0140
50% Fibonacci Extension
Break Target 5
Daily
1.0163
61.8% Fibonacci Extension
Bullish Invalidation
30min / Daily
9885
1.618% & 138.2% Fib Exts
Break Target 1
30min / Daily
9857
1.732 % Ext / TL Support
Break Target 2
Daily
9805
78.6% Retrace / 1.618% Ext
Break Target 3
Daily
9701
88.6% Retracement
Average True Range
Daily
96
Profit Targets 22-24pips
Other Scalp Setups in Play- GBPUSD Clears Primary Objective- Short Scalps In Play Sub-1.54
Reviews today’s Scalp Webinar for further insights and current trade setups
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
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