Talking Points
AUDNZD weekly opening range takes shape above key support
Major inflection zone at 1.1020/35
Limited event risk on tap this week
AUD/NZD Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
AUDNZD at key support zone 1.1020/35- bullish invalidation
Support break targets objectives at 1.0957, 1.0878-1.0906, 1.0826
Resistance at weekly opening range high / Fibonacci confluence 1.1100
Breach targets 1.1160, 1.1200, 1.1267/96- bearish invalidation
Daily RSI straddling 50- neutral
Look for momentum rebound ahead of 40 to remain constructive
Limited event risk heading into weekend.
AUD/NZD 30min Chart
Notes: The AUDNZD has been trading within a well-defined Andrew’s Pitchfork off the September high with the weekly opening range taking shape just above a key infection region at 1.2023/35. Note that within this support zone rests the bisector of a broader ascending pitchfork formation off the 2014 low and as such, we will reserve this threshold as our near-term bullish invalidation level. The Sunday gap-open has been filled and the play here is a break out of the gap-range which is define by 1.1022 – 1.1100.
Bottom line: looking for a break of the weekly opening range with our near-term bias favoring buying dips while above 1.1022/35 with a breach above 1.11 offering further conviction for long-side exposure. Note that the average true range has remained rather tight here so we’ll increase the profit targets to 1/3 of the daily ATR- this puts us at approximately 22pips per scalp.Event risk is limited heading into the weekend and we’ll look for broader market sentiment for guidance. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets
Timeframe
Level
Technical Relevance
Resistance Target 1
30min
1.1075
Soft Resistance / Pivot
Bearish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
1.1100
Weekly ORH / 61.8% Ext
Break Target 1
30min
1.1125
38.2% Retracement
Break Target 2
Daily / 30min
1.1157/63
100% Ext / 50% & 61.8% Retracement(s)
Break Target 3
Daily / 30min
1.1190/99
August Low / 61.8% Retracement
Break Target 4
30min
1.1235
78.6% Retracement
Break Target 5
Daily / 30min
1.1263/66
1.618% Ext / 88.6% Retracement
Bullish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
1.1023/35
100% Ext / 38.2% & 50% Retracement(s)
Break Target 1
Daily / 30min
1.10
S1 Monthly / 50DMA
Break Target 2
30min
1.0982
May High / Soft Support
Break Target 3
Daily / 30min
1.0955/57
50% Retracement
Break Target 4
30min
1.0925
August Close Low / S2 Monthly
Break Target 5
Daily
1.0878- 1.0906
38.2% & 61.8% Retrace(s) / 1.618% Ext / 100DMA
Average True Range
Daily (20)
64
Profit Targets 19-22pips
*ORH: Opening Range High
*ORL: Opening Range Low
Other Setups in Play:
AUDJPY Outside Reversal Day- Scalps Favor Buying Dips Above 96.38
EURUSD Short Bias at Risk Ahead of FOMC- 1.29 Bullish Invalidation
AUDCHF Monthly Opening Range Setup- Scalps Target Key Support
AUDUSD Scalps Target Head and Shoulders Break- Bearish Sub 9236
GBPJPY Pitchfork Setup- Scalps Target Sunday Gap
—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
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Source: Daily fx