Talking Points
AUDJPY testing major resistance just below 2014 highs
Monthly opening range set 94.27 – 96.11
Event risk on tap from Japan & China tonight
AUDJPY Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
AUDJPY at critical Fibonacci resistance barrier 95.67/90
Breach targets resistance objectives at 96.50, 96.89 & 97.50/67
Support at 95.10, 94.27/55 (bullish invalidation) , 92.95-93.34
Daily RSI bearish support trigger pending
Event Risk Ahead: BoJ Interest Rate Decision and China Retail Sales & Industrial Production tonight
AUDJPY Scalp Chart
Notes: Although the yen has not been in our sights for some time now, the AUDJPY has come into a critical area of resistance just below the 2014 highs at 96.50. Intra-week RSI divergence followed by a support trigger-break earlier today immediately our bias to the short side of the pair against Fibonacci resistance at 96.06/10. Note that aside from the Aussie employment spike, the pair has continued to hold within the confines of the weekly opening range and a break/close is needed to validate our near-term directional bias.
Bottom line: the rally is vulnerable here at near-term resistance and the risk for further losses remains while below the 96-handle. Look for a break of the weekly low to offer conviction on short exposure with a breach above the June high putting the broader trend back into focus targeting the 2014 high and beyond into 97.50/67. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets
Timeframe
Level
Technical Relevance
Resistance Target 1
Daily / 30min
96.06/10
1.618% Ext / 50% & 88.6% Retrace
Resistance Target 2
30min
96.23
Soft Resistance / Pivot
Bearish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
96.50
2014 High
Break Target 1
Daily
96.89
April Low / Pivot
Break Target 2
Daily / 30min
97.50/67
100&, 1.618% & 2.618% Extension(s)
Break Target 3
Daily
98.15
61.8% Retracement
Support Target 1
30min
95.76
78.6% Retracement
Support Target 2
30min
95.57
Weekly ORL
Bullish Invalidation
30min
95.38
23.6% Retracement / Swing Low
Break Target 1
Daily / 30min
95.10/17
50DMA / 61.8% Retracement
Break Target 2
30min
94.93
38.2% Retracement
Break Target 3
30min
94.75
Soft Support / Pivot
Break Target 4
Daily / 30min
94.55/57
50% Retrace / 61.8% Ext
Average True Range
Daily (20)
59
Profit Targets 14-17pips
*ORH: Opening Range High
*ORL: Opening Range Low
Other Setups in Play Heading into NFPs:
EURAUD at Fresh 2014 Lows- Reversal Risk High Above 1.4420/40
Breakout or Break Down? NZD/USD Eyes Critical Resistance Pre-NFPs
USDCAD Risks Reversal Ahead of NFPs- 1.0950 Key Resistance
EURUSD Targets 2014 Lows Ahead of ECB/NFP- Opening Ranges in Focus
AUDNZD Testing 2014 Range Highs- 1.09 Key Resistance
GBPUSD Scalps Selling Rallies into May Range Lows- Key Support 1.6750
—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
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Source: Daily fx