Talking Points
AUDCHF testing key inflection point
Scalp bias bullish above 8357/60
Event risk on from Australia next week
AUDCHF Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
AUDCHF rebounds off key support 8357/60- Near-term bullish invalidation
Topside resistance objectives at June TL resistance, 8479 & 8534/45
Support break risks correction into 8276/93- broader bullish invalidation
Daily RSI rebound ahead of 50- constructive
Event Risk Ahead: RBA Interest Rate Decision on Tuesday
AUDCHF 30min Chart
Notes: The rebound off key support at the confluence of the 100% extension off the monthly high and the 61.8% retracement off the monthly low has been well received and keeps our directional bias weighted to the topside near-term. Note that the weekly opening range low is now serving as resistance and a move beyond this mark is needed to invalidate weekly downtrend.
Bottom line: We’ll favor buying dips while above 8357 targeting the monthly highs. Our scalp bias is invalidated with a break below this threshold with the broader outlook remaining weighted to the topside while above the June lows at 8276. Event risk for the pair mounts on July 1st with the RBA interest rate decision and could fuel added volatility in Aussie crosses. Follow the progress of this trade setup and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets
Timeframe
Level
Technical Relevance
Resistance Target 1
30min
8418
50% Retracement / Weekly ORL
Resistance Target 2
30min
8432/38
61.8% Retracement / Sunday Low
Bearish Invalidation
30min
8453/60
78.6% Retracement / Weekly ORH
Break Target 1
Daily / 30min
8479
June High / June 2004 Low
Break Target 2
Daily / 30min
8534/45
1.618% Ext / 78.6% Retracement
Break Target 3
Daily
8653
November High Close
Break Target 1
Daily
8755
November High
Support Target 1
30min
8377/82
61.8% & 50% Retracement(s)
Bullish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
8353/60
61.8% Retrace(s) / 100% Ext / Weekly Low
Break Target 1
30min
8320
78.6% Retracement
Break Target 2
Daily / 30min
8293
1.618% Extension
Break Target 3
Daily / 30min
8276
June Low
Break Target 4
Daily
8237
200DMA
Average True Range
Daily (20)
58
Profit Targets 15-17pips
*ORH: Opening Range High
*ORL: Opening Range Low
Other Setups in Play Heading into NFPs:
GBPJPY Testing Key Inflection Zone- Shorts at Risk Above 172.70
GBPCAD Scalps Target Weekly Range- Bullish Bias at Risk Sub 1.8480
GBPAUD Scalps Favor Buying Dips Post June Range Break
GBPNZD Weekly Opening Range Play- 1.96 Resistance in Focus
AUDJPY Long-bias at Risk Sub 96- BoJ / China Data On Tap
EURAUD at Fresh 2014 Lows- Reversal Risk High Above 1.4420/40
Breakout or Break Down? NZD/USD Eyes Critical Resistance Pre-NFPs
USDCAD Risks Reversal Ahead of NFPs- 1.0950 Key Resistance
—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
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Source: Daily fx
