Talking Points:
– EUR/USD Range Vulnerable as Greece Struggles to Secure Bailout Extension.
– USD/CAD Rebound to Accelerate on Dismal Canada Retail Sales Report.
– USDOLLAR Holds Tight Range Ahead of FOMC Minutes; Forward-Guidance in Focus.
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EUR/USD
Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Will continue to focus on the near-term range in EUR/USD as Greece struggles to secure an extension of its bailout program; will the event spur a ‘buy the rumor/sell the news’ reaction?
The Purchasing Manager Indices (PMI) coming out of the euro-area may help limit the downside risk for EUR/USD as the data prints are expected to show a pickup in economic activity.
DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows retail crowd remains net-short EUR/USD, but seeing the ratio continue to narrow from the extreme readings from earlier this month as the ratio currently sits at -1.54.
USD/CAD
Near-term rebound in USD/CAD may gather pace over the next 24-hours of trade as Canada’s Retail Sales report is expected to show a 0.4% contraction in December; may spur speculation for another Bank of Canada (BoC) rate cut.
Will also keep a close eye on oil prices amid the growing correlation with the Canadian dollar; crude remains vulnerable to a further decline as it struggles to hold above the $53 handle.
As USD/CAD continues to hold above the monthly opening low (1.2350), will keep a close eye on the string of lower-highs at 1.2696 and 1.2797.
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Price & Time: Gold Rebounds
USDOLLAR Back in Pre-FOMC Range – Will Greece Deal Stoke EUR/USD?
USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
Index
Last
High
Low
Daily Change (%)
Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index
11775.44
11798.17
11755.09
0.00
70.17%
Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar pares decline to 11,754 despite the slew of dismal U.S. data; despite the cautious tone laid out in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, seeing mixed reactions to the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric.
Will retain bullish view for USDOLLAR as it continues to close above 11,774; waiting for a break of the bearish momentum in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to favor a further advance in the greenback.
Until then, will continue to watch the near-term range of 11,721 (38.2% expansion) to 11,901 (78.6% expansion).
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Release
GMT
Expected
Actual
Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 14)
13:30
290K
283K
Continuing Claims (FEB 7)
13:30
2360K
2425K
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (FEB)
15:00
9.0
5.2
Leading Index (JAN)
15:00
0.3%
0.2%
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— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
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Source: Daily fx