Talking Points
NZDUSD approaching key technical resistance
Long scalp bias at risk sub-0.8000
Event risk on tap this week
NZD/USD Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
NZDUSD struggles at key resistance 7962/72- bearish invalidation
Support at today’s low 7805
Break targets key support at 7682-7706- bullish invalidation
Support objectives at 7633, 7545, 7456
Resistance breach targets 8053, 8122/37, Pitchfork bisector ~8225
Daily RSI approaching 50- breach would be constructive
Momentum support trigger pending- break below would be bearish
Event Risk Ahead: New Zealand Business Manufacturing PMI tonight, US Industrial Production tomorrow, US Housing Data & University of Michigan on Friday
NZD/USD 30min Chart
Notes: The NZDUSD has breached above the weekly opening range, shifting our scalp bias back to the topside. The subsequent rally has taken the pair into a key resistance level just below the 80-handle and although our topside bias remains in effect above 7900, near-term we’ll look for a reaction off this threshold.
Bottom line: long exposure into the 80-handle is at risk with breach above needed to maintain our near-term scalp bias. That said, we’ll be looking for intra-day short-triggers while below this region. Caution is warranted as we head into event risk tonight from New Zealand and data out of the US tomorrow and Friday with the releases likely to fuel added volatility in Kiwi and Dollar based pairs. Follow the progress of trade setups like these and more throughout the trading week with DailyFX on Demand.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets
Timeframe
Level
Technical Relevance
Bearish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
7962/72
61.8% Ext / 23.6% Retrace / Monthly Central Pivot
Break Target 1
30min
8000
Big Figure / Soft Resistance
Break Target 2
Daily / 30min
8045/60
100% & 150% Ext / February Low
Break Target 3
30min
8100
Big Figure / Soft Resistance
Break Target 4
30min
8122/37
38.2% & 61.8% Retracement
Break Target 5
30min
8162/67
August 2013 High / 50DMA
Support Target 1
30min
7900
Soft Support / Pivot
Support Target 2
30min
7850
61.8% Extension
Support Target 3
30min
7820
61.8% Retracement
Bullish Invalidation
30min
7780
76.4% Retracement / Weekly ORL (7794)
Break Target 1
30min
7745
88.6% Retracement
Break Target 2
Daily / 30min
7707/13
Sept Low / October ORL
Break Target 3
Daily / 30min
7682
2013 Low
Break Target 4
Daily
7633
2009 High
Average True Range
Daily (20)
115
Profit Targets 26-29pips
*ORH: Opening Range High
*ORL: Opening Range Low
Other Setups in Play:
EURAUD Scalps Target 1.46- Breakout Levels Well Defined
GBPAUD Outside Reversal Favors Longs Scalps- 1.8440 Resistance
Scalping the AUDUSD Opening Range- Longs Favored Above 8660
EURUSD October Opening Range Setup- 1.27 Key Resistance
EURCAD Shorts at Risk Ahead of ECB- Key Support 1.4053
Scalping the AUDCHF Reversal- 8360 Resistance in Focus
—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
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Source: Daily fx