Talking Points:
– EUR/USD Risks Break Below 1.3300 as Descending Triangle Remains in Play
– USD/JPY Needs Close Above 102.80-90 Resistance to Favor Topside Targets
– USDOLLAR Clears 10,590 Pivot as Housing Starts, Building Permits Beat Forecast
Index
Last
High
Low
Daily Change (%)
Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index
10592.22
10594.72
10557.15
0.32
131.22%
EUR/USD:
EUR/USD outlook turning increasingly bearish as it fails to hold above 1.3330; descending triangle continues to favor downside targets.
Will look for the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to push back into oversold territory for confirmation/conviction.
The DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) ratio suggests retail crowd is buying into the decline as the ratio climbs to +2.00.
USD/JPY:
Bullish RSI momentum favors topside objectives; has failed to close above 102.80-90 since April.
Need a break & close above this key region to favor a further advance in the USD/JPY.
May see the USD/JPY attempt to carve a higher-high after marking a higher-low at 101.50.
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Read More:
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Next GBP Downturn Ready as ST Oversold Readings Cleared after CPI
USDOLLAR Daily
Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
USDOLLAR(Ticker: USDollar):
Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index rallies to a fresh monthly high of 10,591 as U.S. Housing Starts & Building Permits top market expectations.
Need a close above the 10,590 pivot given the previous failed attempts to see a further advance ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes.
Will look for a greater rift going forward as Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser dissents in August.
Interim Resistance: 10,602 (38.2% retracement) to 10,615 (78.6% expansion)
Interim Support: 10,440 (78.6% retracement) to 10,450 Pivot
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Release
GMT
Expected
Actual
Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUL)
12:30
0.1%
0.1%
Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (JUL)
12:30
0.2%
0.1%
Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)
12:30
2.0%
2.0%
Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (JUL)
12:30
1.9%
1.9%
Consumer Price Index Core Index s.a. (JUL)
12:30
238.520
238.311
Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (JUL)
12:30
238.316
238.250
Housing Starts (JUL)
12:30
965K
1093K
Housing Starts (MoM) (JUL)
12:30
8.1%
15.7%
Building Permits (JUL)
12:30
1000K
1052K
Building Permits (MoM) (JUL)
12:30
2.8%
8.1%
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— Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
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Source: Daily fx