The Euro gained on hopes Greece was closer to firmly securing bailout cash as Athens initiated a debt buyback. The Aussie fell on RBA rate cut bets.
Talking Points
Australian Dollar Sinks on Swelling RBA Rate Cut Expectations
Euro Outperforms as EZ FinMins Meet, Greece Begins Buyback
UK, Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs in Focus on the Data Docket
The Australian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade as forex traders looked ahead to tomorrow’s RBA interest rate decision. Priced-in expectations point to a 92 percent probability of a 25bps rate cut. The Euro proved strongest at the start of the trading week as Eurozone finance ministers prepared to gather in Brussels once again. The spotlight is on a Greek debt buyback, the successful outcome of which is critical securing the continued flow of bailout funds. For its part, the Athens offered to repurchase €10 billion of its outstanding debt today.
On the economic data front, the final revision of November’s Eurozone Manufacturing PMI reading is expected to confirm a print at 46.2, showing factor-sector activity shank for a 16th consecutive month (albeit at a slower pace than in October). A significant downward revision may undermine Euro buoyancy as traders reconsider the possibility of a dovish turn at this week’s ECB policy meeting. UK Manufacturing PMI is also on tap, with forecast calling for a slight nudge higher to 48.0 in November from 47.5 in the prior month. Absent an unexpected push lower, the result is unlikely to yield a lasting impact on price action given its limited scope to nudge BOE policy expectations ahead of this week’s MPC sit-down.
Asia Session: What Happened
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
21:45
NZD
Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (3Q)
-3.2%
-1.5%
-2.6% (R-)
22:30
AUD
AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (NOV)
43.6
–
45.2
23:30
AUD
TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (NOV)
-0.1%
–
0.1%
23:30
AUD
TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (NOV)
2.5%
–
2.4%
23:30
AUD
RPData-Rismark House PX Actual (NOV)
0.0%
–
-1.0%
23:50
JPY
Capital Spending (3Q)
2.2%
4.4%
7.7%
23:50
JPY
Capital Spending excl Software(3Q)
2.4%
1.0%
6.6%
23:50
JPY
Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (OCT)
0.26%
–
0.25%
0:01
GBP
Lloyds Business Barometer (NOV)
17
–
17
0:01
GBP
Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (NOV)
-0.1%
–
-0.1%
0:01
GBP
Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (NOV)
-0.3%
–
-0.4%
0:30
AUD
Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (3Q)
-2.9%
-3.0%
-0.3% (R+)
0:30
AUD
Inventories (3Q)
1.1%
0.4%
0.3% (R-)
0:30
AUD
Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (OCT)
0.0%
0.4%
0.5%
0:30
AUD
ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (NOV)
-2.9%
–
-4.6%
1:00
CNY
Non-manufacturing PMI (NOV)
55.6
–
55.5
1:45
CNY
HSBC Manufacturing PMI (NOV)
50.5
50.4
49.5
5:00
JPY
Vehicle Sales (YoY) (NOV)
-3.3%
–
-9.0%
5:30
AUD
RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (NOV)
-11.6%
–
-16.2% (R-)
5:30
AUD
RBA Commodity Price Index (NOV)
87.0
–
87.2 (R-)
Euro Session: What to Expect
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP
PREV
IMPACT
8:15
CHF
Retail Sales – Real (YoY) (OCT)
3.8%
5.4%
Medium
8:30
CHF
SVME Manufacturing PMI (NOV)
47
46.1
Medium
8:45
EUR
Italian PMI Manufacturing (NOV)
46.0
45.5
Low
8:50
EUR
French PMI Manufacturing (NOV F)
44.7
44.7
Low
8:55
EUR
German PMI Manufacturing (NOV F)
46.8
46.8
Medium
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (NOV F)
46.2
46.2
Medium
9:30
GBP
PMI Manufacturing (NOV)
48.0
47.5
Medium
16:00
EUR
Italian Budget Balance (NOV)
–
-13.1B
Low
16:00
EUR
Italian Budget Balance YTD (NOV)
–
-58.5B
Low
16:00
EUR
Eurozone Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels
–
–
High
17:00
EUR
Italian New Car Registrations (YoY) (NOV)
–
-12.39%
Low
Critical Levels **
CCY
SUPPORT
RESISTANCE
EURUSD
1.2960
1.3114
GBPUSD
1.5980
1.6096
** Intraday support and resistance levels are derived from Pivot Points
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
To be added to Ilya’s e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.
Source: Daily fx
