Talking Points:
Euro Looks to Revised PMI Data to Shape ECB Rate Decision Speculation
British Pound Unlikely to Find Volatility in Slight Manufacturing PMI Uptick
Australian, New Zealand Dollars Rose After Firm Chinese PMI Roundup
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The final revision of November’s Eurozone Manufacturing PMI number headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Flash estimates put the outcome at 51.5, marking the fastest pace of sector growth since June 2011. Traders will look to the result to help set the stage for the ECB monetary policy announcement later in the week. An upside surprise stands to boost the Euro amid fading bets on an expansion of stimulus efforts after last month’s surprise interest rate cut. Needless to say, a soft result will probably invert this dynamic and weigh on the single currency.
UK Manufacturing PMI data is also on tap. The measure is forecast to inch higher to 56.1 in November, snapping a two-month losing streak. UK economic news-flow has increasingly underperformed relative to expectations since mid-August. Meanwhile, BOE Governor Mark Carney and his colleagues at the central bank spent much of last week arguing forcefully that the great victory of the forward-guidance policy framework adopted in August has been to disconnect economic data outcomes from interest rate hike speculation. On balance, that hints a marginal uptick on the PMI gauge is unlikely to offer a meaningful boost to British Pound.
The Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed in overnight trade as a strong set of Chinese Manufacturing PMI figures bolstered the demand outlook for the two counties’ top export market. That in turn translated into a boost to RBA and RBNZ policy bets. November’s official PMI reading was reported at 51.4 over the weekend, unchanged from October but better than economists’ forecast of 51.1. An analogous measure from HSBC printed at 50.8, marking a slight slowing in factory-sector activity compared with an October figure at 50.9 but yielding a better result than the expected 50.5 outcome. The Japanese Yen underperformed on ebbing haven demand for the safety-linked currency.
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Asia Session:
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
1:00
CNY
Manufacturing PMI (NOV)
51.4
51.1
51.4
21:45
NZD
Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (3Q)
7.5%
2.9%
4.7%
22:30
AUD
AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (NOV)
47.7
–
53.2
23:00
AUD
RPData/Rismark House Px (MoM) (NOV)
0.1%
–
1.3%
23:30
AUD
TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (NOV)
0.2%
–
0.1%
23:30
AUD
TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (NOV)
2.4%
–
2.1%
23:50
JPY
Capital Spending (YoY) (3Q)
1.5%
3.6%
0.0%
23:50
JPY
Capital Spending excl Software (3Q)
2.3%
4.5%
1.4%
23:50
JPY
Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (3Q)
1.99%
–
2.00%
23:50
JPY
Company Sales (3Q)
0.8%
–
-0.5%
23:50
JPY
Company Profits (3Q)
24.1%
–
24.0%
0:01
GBP
Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (NOV)
0.5%
–
0.5%
0:01
GBP
Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (NOV)
3.8%
–
3.1%
0:30
AUD
Building Approvals (MoM) (OCT)
-1.8%
-5.0%
16.9%
0:30
AUD
Building Approvals (YoY) (OCT)
23.1%
17.0%
22.2%
0:30
AUD
Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (3Q)
3.9%
1.0%
0.4%
0:30
AUD
Inventories (QoQ) (3Q)
-0.5%
0.0%
0.4%
1:45
CNY
HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI (NOV)
50.8
50.5
50.9
5:00
JPY
Vehicle Sales (YoY) (NOV)
13.3%
–
17.3%
5:30
AUD
RBA Commodity Index (NOV)
89.9
–
88.6
5:30
AUD
RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (NOV)
-1.9%
–
-0.5%
5:54
CNY
Leading Index (OCT)
99.54
–
99.57
Euro Session:
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP/ACT
PREV
IMPACT
8:30
CHF
PMI Manufacturing (NOV)
54.4
54.2
Medium
8:45
EUR
Italian PMI Manufacturing (NOV)
50.8
50.7
Low
8:50
EUR
French PMI Manufacturing (NOV F)
47.8
47.8
Low
8:55
EUR
German PMI Manufacturing (NOV F)
52.5
52.5
Medium
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (NOV F)
51.5
51.5
Medium
9:30
GBP
PMI Manufacturing (NOV)
56.1
56.0
Medium
Critical Levels:
CCY
SUPP 3
SUPP 2
SUPP 1
Pivot Point
RES 1
RES 2
RES 3
EURUSD
1.3514
1.3556
1.3573
1.3598
1.3615
1.3640
1.3682
GBPUSD
1.6218
1.6287
1.6327
1.6356
1.6396
1.6425
1.6494
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Source: Daily fx