Talking Points
Critical technical resistance between 9921- 9942 (multi-year pivot)
Interim scalp bias bearish below this mark- scalp levels & key thresholds
Event risk on tap tonight with Chinese data
AUDCAD Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
AUDCAD trading within a well-defined ascending channel formation off the August low
Embedded channel off the late September lows also in play
Critical resistance range between 9922/41 – 3-way Fib confluence & channel resistance
Longs at risk below this mark- Breach targets objectives at 9985- 1.007, 1.0077 & 1.0125.
Downside targets eye channel support backed key support at 9750/60
Daily RSI struggling to breach the 70 resistance- bullish momentum waning
Key Event Ahead- ChineseGDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales tonight
AUDCAD Scalp Chart
Notes: This has been an extremely popular setup in DailyFX on Demand as the pair traded into key resistance this morning. Long exposure was warranted into this threshold between 9922 – 9941 which represents a host of longer & medium-term Fibonacci ratios as well as current operative channel resistance dating back to August. This level should not be underestimates as it also represents a multiyear pivot in price dating back to the 2009 highs. While the critical nature of this threshold has us looking lower in the near-term, we will remain nimble noting that shorts scalps will be counter-trend until further evidence supports the notion that an interim high may be in place.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets
Timeframe
Level
Significance
Bearish Invalidation
Daily / 30min
9922/41
1.618 & 61.8% Fib Ext / 50 & 38.2% Retrc
Break Target 1
Daily / 30min
9985 -1.0000
100% Fib Ext / 200 DMA
Break Target 2
30min
1.0020
Soft Resistance / Pivot
Break Target 3
30min
1.0050
Soft Resistance / Pivot
Break Target 4
30min
1.0077
1.618% Fib Ext
Break Target 5
Daily / 30min
1.0125
61.8% Retracement
Bullish Invalidation
30min
9887
23.6% Retracement
Break Target 1
30min
9860
38.2% Retracement
Break Target 2
30min
9840
50% Retracement
Break Target 3
30min
8419
61.8% Retracement
Break Target 4
30min
9790/91
38.2% & 78.6% Retracement
Break Target 5
Daily / 30min
9749/59
Weekly Low / 38.2% & 50% Retrace
Break Target 6
30min
9706
61.8% Retracement
Average True Range
Daily
68
Profit Targets 16-18pips
Other Setups in Play:
GBP Threatens Support on US Debt Deal- Bearish Scalp Bias at Risk
USDCHF Scalp Bias at Risk Below 0.9170 Resistance
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—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
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Source: Daily fx