AUDUSD Losses Likely Limited in the Interim- Scalps Turn Long

AUDUSD Daily Chart

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

All three objectives noted in last week’s AUDUSD scalp report have now been achieved
7-days of consecutive declines for first time since December 05’- (Note: That year saw 8 days down followed by massive reversal which pared nearly the entire decline)
Daily RSI now sitting (matches) lowest level since May 2012 (right before the rally to 1.06)
Broader bias remains bearish- Risk of near-term correction has us looking higher over next day or so
Daily resistance at 9980, 1.0025 bearish invalidation point
Break below 9880 threshold looks for 2011 trendline support (currently around 9860)
Medium-term objectives at 9805 (Key Fib confluence) and 9700 (88.6% Fib retracement)

AUDUSD Scalp Chart

Scalp Notes: Bottom Line: Although our longer-term bias remains weighted to the downside, the conditions here are set for a possible relief rally which may offer more favorable short entries higher. Our immediate bias therefore shifts cautiously to the long-side above 9880. Note that a break below this level may be required to see a test of the multiyear-long trendline support dating back to the 2011 lows with a rejection here and a move back above 9880 offering further conviction on a near-term bounce. Broader bias remains bearish so long as the 1.0025 resistance threshold is respected.

*We will remain flexible with our bias with a break below the 9960-80 range eyeing subsequent support targets. It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases. Use this app to distinguish the various trade sessions.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets

Timeframe

Level

Significance

Resistance Target 1

30min

9912

1.50% Fibonacci Extension

Resistance Target 2

30min

9938

1.382% Fibonacci Extension

Resistance Target 3

Daily

9980

61.8% Retracement

Bearish Invalidation

30min / Daily

1.0025

100% Extensions

Break Target 1

30min

1.0050

Soft Resistance / Pivot

Break Target 2

30min

1.0075

78.6% Fibonacci Extension

Break Target 3

30min

1.0114

61.8% Fibonacci Extension

Break Target 4

30min

1.0140

50% Fibonacci Extension

Break Target 5

Daily

1.0163

61.8% Fibonacci Extension

Bullish Invalidation

30min / Daily

9885

1.618% & 138.2% Fib Exts

Break Target 1

30min / Daily

9857

1.732 % Ext / TL Support

Break Target 2

Daily

9805

78.6% Retrace / 1.618% Ext

Break Target 3

Daily

9701

88.6% Retracement

Average True Range

Daily

96

Profit Targets 22-24pips

Other Scalp Setups in Play- GBPUSD Clears Primary Objective- Short Scalps In Play Sub-1.54

Reviews today’s Scalp Webinar for further insights and current trade setups

For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex

—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list

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