Trading The US Elections: Scenarios & USD Reactions – RBS

We center on three scenarios:

(1) Base case: Clinton wins the Presidency, but with split government as the GOP keeps the House. The Senate can go either way, though we expect Democrats to narrowly take the Senate under a Clinton victory.

(2) Clinton Sweep: Clinton wins the Presidency and a strong performance down the ballot gives Senate and House Democratic majority. A narrowing at the Presidential race has reduced this already low-probability scenario.

(3) Trump Win: Trump wins the Presidency and a strong showing for Republicans leads them to keep their majority in the Senate. The Republicans also keep the House, as expected.

Copyright © 2016 RBS, eFXnews™Original Article