The Japanese Yen is likely to rise amid returning risk aversion if April’s US Consumer Confidence data falls short of economists’ expectations.
Talking Points
Euro Sold as Disappointing German, EZ Data Boosts ECB Rate Cut Bets
Yen May Rise if US Consumer Confidence Reports Falls Short of Forecasts
The Euro is narrowly underperforming in otherwise quietearly European trading hours as disappointing economic data bolsters interest rate cut expectations ahead of the ECB monetary policy announcement later in the week. April’s German Unemployment report showed the economy shed 4,000 jobs compared with a 2,000 increase expected by forecasters. Meanwhile, Eurozone CPI data unexpectedly put the year-on-year inflation rate at 1.2 percent, the lowest since February 2010.
Looking ahead, the spotlight is on US Consumer Confidence figures. Expectations call for a narrow increase to 61.0 in April compared with 59.7 in the prior month. US economic news-flow has increasingly underperformed relative to expectations since late March however, hinting analysts continue to underestimate the degree of slowdown playing out in the world’s top economy and opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome may weigh on risk appetite, pushing cycle-sensitive currencies including the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars while boosting the Japanese Yen.
Asia Session:
GMT
CCY
EVENT
ACT
EXP
PREV
22:45
NZD
Building Permits (MoM) (MAR)
-9.1%
2.0%
4.4%
23:01
GBP
GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (APR)
-27
-26
-26
23:15
JPY
Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI (APR)
51.1
–
50.4
23:30
JPY
Household Spending (YoY) (MAR)
5.2%
1.6%
0.8%
23:30
JPY
Jobless Rate (MAR)
4.1%
4.2%
4.3%
23:50
JPY
Retail Trade (YoY) (MAR)
-0.3%
0.4%
-2.2%
23:50
JPY
Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (MAR)
-1.4%
-0.8%
1.7%
23:50
JPY
Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR P)
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
23:50
JPY
Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR P)
-7.3%
-7.2%
-10.5%
23:50
JPY
Large Retailers’ Sales (MAR)
2.4%
1.8%
-3.7%
1:00
NZD
NBNZ Business Confidence (APR)
32.3
–
34.6
1:00
NZD
ANZ Activity Outlook (APR)
30.3
–
32.4
1:30
AUD
Private Sector Credit (YoY) (MAR)
3.2%
3.2%
3.4%
1:30
AUD
Private Sector Credit (MoM) (MAR)
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
3:00
NZD
Money Supply M3 (YoY) (MAR)
7.0%
–
6.6%
4:00
JPY
Vehicle Production (YoY) (MAR)
-16.4%
–
-15.1%
5:00
JPY
Housing Starts (YoY) (MAR)
7.3%
6.0%
3.0%
5:00
JPY
Annualized Housing Starts (MAR)
0.904M
0.890M
0.944M
5:00
JPY
Construction Orders (YoY) (MAR)
-3.4%
–
16.3%
Euro Session:
GMT
CCY
EVENT
EXP/ACT
PREV
IMPACT
6:00
EUR
German Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR)
-0.3% (A)
-0.6%
Medium
6:00
EUR
German Retail Sales (YoY) (MAR)
-2.8% (A)
-2.6%
Medium
6:00
EUR
German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (MAY)
6.2 (A)
6.0
Low
7:00
CHF
SNB Releases Q1 Currency Holdings
–
–
Low
7:55
EUR
German Unemployment Change (APR)
4K (A)
12K
High
7:55
EUR
German Unemployment Rate s.a. (APR)
6.9% (A)
6.9%
High
8:00
EUR
Italian Unemployment Rate sa (MAR P)
11.5% (A)
11.5%
Low
8:30
GBP
Net Consumer Credit (MAR)
0.5B (A)
0.5B
Low
8:30
GBP
Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (MAR)
0.4B (A)
0.8B
Low
8:30
GBP
Mortgage Approvals (MAR)
53.5K (A)
51.9K
Medium
8:30
GBP
M4 Money Supply (MoM) (MAR)
-0.9% (A)
-0.5%
Low
8:30
GBP
M4 Money Supply (YoY) (MAR)
0.3% (A)
0.6%
Low
8:30
GBP
M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (MAR)
4.6% (A)
3.2%
Low
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) (APR)
1.2% (A)
1.6%
High
9:00
EUR
Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (MAR)
12.1% (A)
12.0%
Medium
Critical Levels:
CCY
SUPPORT
RESISTANCE
EURUSD
1.2984
1.3136
GBPUSD
1.5467
1.5540
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
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