THE TAKEAWAY: Eurozone July CPI Core comes in below expectations > US 2Q GDP vastly beats expectations
Today highlights significant event risk in the USD. There have already been two noteworthy data prints today which have helped propel the USD higher. The first was the ADP Employment Change which showed a +200K gain during July, compared to the Bloomberg News survey consensus of +180K. The other significant release was US 2Q GDP, which came in at +1.7%, immensely higher than the +1.0% Bloomberg News survey consensus. However, 1Q US GDP was revised down from +1.8% to +1.1%. While these figures are mostly encouraging, the GDP Price Index meaningfully missed Bloomberg News survey expectations: +0.7% 2Q actual; +1.0% expected. Recall that the Fed has spoken about a stronger defense of the +2.0% inflation target, which would imply prolonged dovish policy.
All the aforementioned data points will be factored into the Fed’s policy statement today at 18:00 GMT / 14:00 EDT. It will be interesting to observe what the Fed says about inflation and the recent progress in labor conditions.
The complete list of economic data today can be found here.
The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) gains +40 (+0.37%) to $10828 at the time of writing.
AUDUSD 15-minute Chart: July 31, 2013
Charts Created using Marketscope – prepared by Kevin Jin
The AUDUSD is the largest loser again today, declining -1.15% at the time of writing. The pair is trading below the psychologically important $0.9000 at the time of writing, a level untouched since July 12. The AUDUSD has not closed below 0.9000 since September 2010.
GBPUSD 15-minute Chart: July 31, 2013
Charts Created using Marketscope – prepared by Kevin Jin
The GBPUSD is modestly lower by -0.35% at the time of writing. Price quickly broke lower at New York Open, roughly coinciding with the release of positive economic data. However the cable did rebound about +50 pips about an hour after the US GDP release.
EURUSD 15-minute Chart: July 31, 2013
Charts Created using Marketscope – prepared by Kevin Jin
The EURUSD is one of the strongest performing majors today, gaining +0.20% at the time of writing. The pair is trading up to $1.3300 through London Close, nearing the highs created during the early London session.
USDJPY 15-minute Chart: July 31, 2013
Charts Created using Marketscope – prepared by Kevin Jin
The USDJPY is modestly higher by +0.40% at the time of writing. The pair has moved nearly 100 pips today with an explosive gain near New York Open.
— Written by Kevin Jin, DailyFX Research
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